Like Bitcoin fell to near $80,000 in late November, the ratio of holders’ short-term bid for profits to holders’ short-term bid for losses fell to levels that have historically coincided with major or local bear market bottoms.
On November 24, the ratio fell to 0.013. Each previous instance where the ratio reached this level marked either a local bottom or the definitive bear market low, including in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2022, according to Glassnode data.
Glassnode defines short-term holders as investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days. At the November low, the seven-day moving average of holders’ short-term profit supply fell to around 30,000 BTC. In contrast, the short-term holders’ supply loss jumped to 2.45 million BTC, the highest level since the FTX collapse in November 2022, when bitcoin bottomed near $15,000.
Since the start of 2026, bitcoin has climbed to around $94,000, a jump of more than 7%. During this period, the supply of short-term holders in loss decreased to 1.9 million BTC, while the supply of short-term holders in profit rebounded sharply to 850,000 BTC, a ratio of approximately 0.45.
Historically, when the ratio approaches 1, it tends to exceed it and continue to grow beyond it. At the same time, the price of Bitcoin tends to enter a sustained bullish phase. With the ratio currently below 0.5%, the indicator suggests there remains significant room for expansion before reaching equilibrium.
As for peaks, they tend to only occur when the ratio reaches 100.
