The VIX and bitcoin often move in opposite directions, with sharp rises in the volatility index frequently coinciding with bitcoin’s local lows.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures the expected volatility of the S&P 500 based on options prices and is widely considered Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” surged to its highest level in nearly a year, surpassing 35. The rise signals growing panic in traditional markets.
The move comes as global markets react to soaring oil prices. WTI crude briefly jumped to around $120 as futures opened Sunday, before retreating toward $100. Volatility weighed on both traditional safe havens and stocks, with US stocks and gold falling.
However, Bitcoin has deviated from this trend. The largest cryptocurrency is up around 5% in the past 24 hours and is trading above $69,000.
Historically, bitcoin tends to bottom out when the VIX rises. During the market turmoil caused by tariffs in April 2025, bitcoin found support near $75,000 as the VIX climbed to around 60. In August 2024, the unwinding of the yen carry trade pushed the VIX above 64 while bitcoin fell to around $49,000. A similar pattern emerged during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March 2023, when the VIX briefly rose above 30 and bitcoin hit a local low near $20,000.
Bitcoin’s own volatility gauge suggests that the crypto market has already experienced its panic phase. The Volmex Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index (BVIV), which measures expected price fluctuations derived from the price of Bitcoin options, rose above 96 in early February when bitcoin briefly fell to $60,000, the highest level since the yen carry trade turmoil in August 2024. BVIV is now back just above 60.
This divergence could indicate that crypto markets have been at the forefront of the stresses now hitting traditional finance, although a VIX near 30 suggests that volatility in traditional markets may not be over yet.
