BTC faces strong selling pressure despite bullish seasonal expectations

Bitcoin continues to trade slowly around the $110,000 level and remains under pressure against gold.

Onchain data from Glassnode shows that selling pressure from long-term holders (LTH) is intensifying. Glassnode defines LTHs as investors who have held Bitcoin for 155 days or more.

Currently, LTHs collectively hold around 14.5 million BTC, but they continue to reduce their positions. In the last few days alone, this cohort has sold around 100,000 BTC. Since the peak of their holdings, they have offloaded over 300,000 BTC since the end of June.

LTH power supply (Glassnode)

Given that almost all LTHs are currently in profit, the data suggests that significant profit-taking has been underway since early October.

There are several theories as to why this sale is happening. Historically, the fourth quarter has been a seasonally strong period for bitcoin, and approximately 18 months after a halving event is generally considered the most bullish phase of the cycle. However, with the current cycle not following this historical pattern, some investors may abandon their positions, fearing that the four-year cycle theory, which has applied in previous cycles, may not hold this time around.

Glassnode data also highlights that whales are currently the main distributors of Bitcoin. According to the cohort accumulation trend score, entities holding more than 10,000 BTC are widely distributed. Cohorts holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have a neutral position with a score of 0.5, while all cohorts holding less than 1,000 BTC are net accumulators. Whales have been consistently selling since August.

Accumulation by cohort (Glassnode)

Accumulation by cohort (Glassnode)

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