After weeks of regular withdrawals, investors are beginning to allocate new capital to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States.
This change follows a difficult start to the year for products. From mid-October, when the price of Bitcoin began to fall, through the end of February, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw cumulative outflows of about $9 billion, according to data from Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart. The category still shows $1.1 billion in net outflows for 2026, but flows have changed in recent days. Since February 24, investors have added about $1.7 billion.
The bounce suggests some investors believe Bitcoin may have found at least a short-term bottom.
“It surprised me that there was virtually no buying on the dip when bitcoin was a falling knife to start the year,” Seyffart said. At the time, software stocks and crypto assets were both down, but investor behavior was divided. Software ETFs saw record inflows as traders attempted to time a bottom while bitcoin ETFs continued to experience steady drawdowns.
These withdrawals were not spectacular, but they persisted.
Today, the trend seems to be reversing. Seyffart said the recent price development could have helped restore confidence. Over the weekend, bitcoin held above recent lows despite geopolitical tensions related to Iran.
“I think investors are probably feeling a little more comfortable that we’ve hit at least a near-term bottom,” Seyffart said. “This higher low this weekend following such massive news must have been a comfort to some. »
The inflows also appear to reflect purely bullish positioning rather than market-neutral trading strategies. Some institutional investors use ETFs and futures contracts together in what is called a basis trade, in which they capture the return on price differences between the spot and futures markets.
But this setup doesn’t seem attractive at the moment.
Returns on these trades remain relatively low, while open interest in CME’s crypto futures and options markets has declined. This decline suggests that fewer traders are taking large positions in the derivatives that typically accompany arbitrage strategies.
Instead, ETF inflows look more like simple bets on the direction of Bitcoin’s price.
Despite bitcoin falling about 16% this year, almost all spot bitcoin ETFs are still showing positive net flows for 2026, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) adding about $300 million in capital since the start of the year. This dynamic highlights how investors continue to invest through regulated fund structures, even during economic downturns.
Nate Geraci, president of ETF Store, said these flows also reflect the growing conviction of large asset managers promoting these funds.
“It’s easy to dismiss this as simply BlackRock promoting its most profitable product,” Geraci said. “But I see it more as the company doubling down on its belief that bitcoin has a place in diversified portfolios.”
Geraci noted that BlackRock offers many higher-fee ETFs that he could highlight. Meanwhile, its spot bitcoin ETF, IBIT, is down about 4% this year. Asset managers rarely promote lagging funds unless they strongly believe in the long term, he said.
