American poet Charles Bukowski said: “The crowd is still wrong”, and his words seem to summarize the situation in the financial markets perfectly.
Barely 24 hours ago, social media was in an effervescence to fear that the American air strike on Iran’s nuclear sites, combined with the Iran conference reflecting on the closure of the Hormuz Strait, will trigger a massive increase in oil prices, leading to a slide in actions and cryptocurrencies.
The reality, however, has proven to be different. The prices of oil on both sides of the Atlantic have increased by 3% and have since erased most of the gains, according to Data Source TradingView.
During the editorial staff, a barrel of Brent oil changed hands at $ 77, up 1.4% for the day. Prices increased to reach a five -month higher $ 77.79. Likewise, the West Texas Intermediate Brude (WTI) reached a summit of $ 78.58 before falling back to $ 76.75.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin
The main cryptocurrency per market value exceeded $ 101,000, after reaching lows of less than $ 98,000, when fears of a peak oil price led to the BTC listed in the short-term on calls. The term contracts linked to the S&P 500 exchanged less than 0.3%.
The largely moody reaction in oil prices suggests that the market does not expect Iran to follow its threats and block the Strait of Hormuz, which could destabilize its main allies in Asia, in particular China.
“Price action this morning suggests that the market does not believe (at least not yet) which crosses Hormuz.
“With more than 80% of oil flows through Hormuz ending in Asia, the impact on the region would be greater than that of the United States. Therefore, Iran would like to be careful by upsetting people like China by disturbing oil flows,” added ING.
According to the Energy Market Anas Alhajji, the Iranian threat to close the Strait is largely a rhetorical tactic for domestic consumption, which it used at least 15 times since the 1980s. Alhajji explained the same thing in an article on X, revisiting the 2018 wire which detailed how the blocking of the Strait is easier to say.
“For Iran to close the Strait, this means the occupation and management of Oman’s waters where most ships pass.
BTC has a key support
All this means that the peak of very sustainable oil prices may not materialize soon, which could help the BTC and other assets at risk to avoid a sale. A sharp increase in oil would increase the risk that large economies will slip into stagflation, the worst result for most assets, including Bitcoin.
The BTC graph shows that Bears failed to set up below the horizontal support at $ 100,430 on Sunday. Buyers intervened around this level on June 5, which increased prices to $ 110,000 in the following days.
The drinking reaction of the oil suggests the potential of the history of repeating itself. On the other hand, acceptance under the support would move attention to the confluence of single mobile averages from 100 and 200 days to around $ 95,900.
