Bitcoin is on pace to tie a joint record of six consecutive monthly losses, set just once between August 2018 and January 2019, according to Coinglass data.
Currently at $66,600, BTC is expected to rebound just over 1% over the next 15 hours to close above the $67,300 level where it began the month.
According to Coinglass data, bitcoin fell 4% in October, 18% in November and 3% in December. The downward trend continued through 2026, with January down 10%, February down 15%, and March currently down around 1%.
The last time Bitcoin recorded six consecutive months of decline was between August 2018 and January 2019. This period was followed by five consecutive months of gains, providing Bitcoin bulls with modest historical precedent for a potential recovery.
Downside risks remain
However, unlike the experience of 2019, the technical aspects and the macroeconomic situation suggest that the pressure could persist.
Bitcoin remains above key long-term support levels, including its 200-week moving average at $59,268 and its realized price – the basis of the on-chain average cost – at $54,177, according to Glassnode data. In previous bear markets, bitcoin has typically fallen below these two levels and stayed there for an extended period of time.
Macroeconomic conditions also remain an obstacle. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has kept oil prices above $100 a barrel for more than a month, complicating central banks’ policy decisions on rate cuts or further tightening. At the same time, renewed concerns about the risks of quantum computing have added another layer of uncertainty.
One potential bright spot is that bitcoin has risen slightly since the start of the Middle East conflict, suggesting some resilience despite a broader risk-averse environment.
