By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market rallied over the weekend, providing a brief respite after heavy selling pressure kept cryptocurrency prices low following a $500 billion value destruction event.
Bitcoin price increased by 3% in the last 24 hours to $110,770. It remains down around 4% for the month. The rally has come as risk sentiment improves globally, with stocks rising and investors returning to more volatile assets.
US President Donald Trump’s softer stance on tariffs and signs that the Federal Reserve may ease monetary policy later this year have helped calm markets. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) is up 4.3% over the past 24 hours, with all members in the green.
“Although Bitcoin has seen a notable short-term correction, the long-term trend remains a different story, as the cryptocurrency’s trajectory is still heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors such as Federal Reserve monetary policy, US dollar strength, Bitcoin ETF spot flows, and geopolitical risks,” said Linh Tran, markets analyst at XS.com, to CoinDesk in an emailed statement.
However, short-term momentum may not be indicative of a lasting trend. Analysts at Coinbase Institutional warned that low liquidity, strong U.S. dollar, and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve rate moves continue to weigh on market structure.
Rising U.S. Treasury yields late last week and geopolitical tensions with Israel carrying out retaliatory airstrikes in Gaza after attacks on its forces while a ceasefire was in effect and as Russia advanced in Ukraine, kept many institutional investors cautious.
Nonetheless, corporate accumulation continued, with data from BitcoinTreasuries showing that over the past 30 days, these entities increased their holdings by 8.4% to 4.04 million BTC. Access to crypto exposure is also increasing, with BlackRock and 21Shares adding their crypto ETPs to the London Stock Exchange for retail investors.
“Overall, in my opinion, Bitcoin is currently in a reaccumulation phase following its short-term correction, with market sentiment stabilizing and institutional demand remaining resilient,” Tran added. Stay vigilant!
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- October 20: Ether the treasury company ETHZilla Corp. (ETHZ) will implement a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, reducing the number of shares outstanding to 16 million.
- Macro
- October 20, 8:30 a.m.: Canada September PPI. Title YoY (previous 4%), MoM (previous 0.5%).
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- GnosisDAO is voting on a proposal to fund ProbeLab with $105,000 to develop detailed performance and security metrics for Gnosis Chain’s P2P network. Voting closes on October 21.
- 1inch DAO votes to remove Unicorn Power’s 5% staking requirement for Fusion resolvers. Voting closes on October 21.
- Unlocks
- October 20: to unlock 7.86% of its circulating supply worth $44.73 million.
- Token Launches
- October 20: Falcon Finance S2 staking deadline.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Symbolic discussion
By Olivier Knight
- An increase in the value of several altcoins, including the popular memecoin floki, led to improved crypto market sentiment on Monday, although CoinMarketCap’s seasonal altcoin index remains at 26/100, indicating investors’ preference for bitcoin over speculative plays.
- Bitcoin dominance, a metric used to gauge how much of the total crypto market capitalization can be attributed to BTC, is 58.8%, an increase from the same period last month when it was 57.2%.
- Although there were signs of recovery on Monday, several altcoins are still significantly lower than they were a week ago. Synthetix is down 30%, while others including FET, ASTER and BNB are all facing losses between 15% and 25%.
- One driver of positive sentiment on Monday was LINK, which rose 14% after a series of wallets collectively withdrew $116 million worth of tokens from Binance, indicating a buildup following last week’s crash.
- The average relative strength index (RSI) for cryptocurrencies is 54.2/100, suggesting that the market is in a state of uncertainty as it moves away from key support levels, but remains far from challenging major resistance levels.
Positioning of derivative products
- BTC options positioning remains firmly bullish, with a put-call open interest ratio of 0.66 and strong accumulation at the $140,000 strike price, where over $2.4 billion of notional call exposure is concentrated. This indicates that traders continue to anticipate bullish momentum through the end of the year, even as spot volatility increases.
- Total open interest in Bitcoin Deribit options climbed to 427,746 contracts, marking a yearly high. The December 26 expiration dominates ($14.3 billion notional), suggesting traders are extending their bullish bets further out on the curve while maintaining tactical flexibility on shorter-term options.
- ETH options feature similar positioning, with call dominance around the $4,000-$4.5,000 strike prices and increasing open interest through late December expirations, mirroring the structure of BTC.
Market movements
- BTC is up 3.65% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $110,980.77 (24 hours: +3.32%)
- ETH is up 5% at $4,051.70 (24 hours: +2.96%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 5.52% at 3,706.47 (24 hours: +3.47%)
- Ether CESR composite staking rate is down 14 basis points to 2.82%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0015% (1.6097% annualized) on Binance
- The DXY is unchanged at 98.48
- Gold futures are up 1.52% at $4,277.30
- Silver futures are up 1.50% at $50.85
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 3.37% at 49,185.50
- Hang Seng closed 2.42% higher at 25,858.83
- The FTSE is up 0.28% at 9,381.02
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.64% at 5,643.36
- DJIA closed Friday up 0.52% at 46,190.61
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.53% at 6,664.01
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.52% at 22,679.97
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 1.15% at 30,108.48
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.55% at 2,884.62
- The 10-year US Treasury yield is up 0.5 bps to 4.014%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.25% at 6,719.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.34% at 25,071.50
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.19% at 46,469.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.68% (0.18%)
- Ether/bitcoin ratio: 0.03649 (-0.46%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,153 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $47.74
- Total fees: 2.23 BTC / $240,861
- Open interest on CME futures: 144,335 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 26.4 ounces
- BTC vs. gold market capitalization: 7.44%
Technical analysis
- After retesting the weekly order block during the October 10 liquidation cascade, the ETH-BTC ratio closed the week above the yearly open, a positive sign for the bulls.
- Maintaining this key level will be crucial as the ratio often serves as a leading indicator of altcoin outperformance.
- With ETH-BTC now breaking out of a multi-week downtrend, the next major resistance lies at the 100-week exponential moving average, currently around $0.03904.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Friday at $336.02 (+1.75%), +3.4% to $347.43
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $126.49 (-1.53%), +3.43% at $130.74
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $37.78 (-5.34%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $57.07 (-0.83%), +2.59% at $58.58
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $19.57 (-3.43%), +4.65% to $20.48
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $20.03 (+2.46%), +3.89% to $20.81
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $19 (-3.41%), +2.58% at $19.49
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $19.52 (-2.33%), +4.38% at $20.38
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $58.23 (-1.85%), +5.74% at $61.57
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $24.86 (-1.27%), unchanged in pre-market
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $289.87 (+2.12%), +3.72% at $300.65
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $23.18 (-6.04%), +2.55% to $23.77
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $14.34 (-1.58%), +3.7% to $14.87
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $5.4 (-3.74%), +5.74% at $5.71
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.88 (+1.62%), +4.79% at $1.97
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flow: -$366.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $61.50 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.35 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flow: -$232.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $14.61 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.79 million
Source: Farside Investors
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