The US labor market weakened significantly in February, perhaps putting the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the first half of 2026 into play.
The country lost 92,000 jobs last month, according to the report released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists forecast the creation of 59,000 new jobs, compared to 126,000 in January.
The unemployment rate reached 4.4%, compared to 4.3% expected by economists and 4.3% in January.
Under pressure overnight before the report was released and down to $70,000 as oil soared and stock markets fell, Bitcoin stayed right around this mark in the minutes following the data.
U.S. stock index futures continue to fall, with the Nasdaq down 1% and the S&P 500 down 0.8%. The 10-year Treasury yield fell four basis points to 4.11%. Precious metals have reversed their initial decline, with gold now up 1% and silver 2%. WTI crude oil is up 6.2% at $86 a barrel.
Prior to this morning’s report, markets were pricing in a 95% chance that the Federal Reserve would hold rates steady at the March 18 meeting and an 85% chance that it would not cut rates in April.
At the same time, rising oil prices linked to tensions in the Middle East could increase upward pressure on inflation expectations. If it continues, the rise in energy prices could fuel broader inflation, particularly through the costs of energy and food products. Combined with signs of a possible reacceleration of the US economy, this could prompt markets to reassess the stance of monetary policy.
