A more optimistic macroeconomic backdrop, an increase in business appetite for digital assets, and increased regulatory clarity will feed a constructive perspective for cryptographic markets in the second half of 2025, according to a Coinbase Research report.
After a first trimester jet marked by a brief contraction of American GDP and commercial disturbances, the data now indicates stronger growth. The Atlanta Fed GDPNOW tracker increased to 3.8% QOQ in early June, a strong upgrade compared to the beginning of the year. This change, alongside the expectations of rate reductions in the federal reserve and a less aggressive commercial policy, has attenuated fears of recession and strengthened the feeling of investors.
Cases of use of dollar domination and inflation protection can also increase
The appeal, even if the yields of the Treasury in the United States for a long time remain high, according to the report. Altcoins can drag unless they benefit from specific catalysts, such as ETF approvals or protocol developments.
Meanwhile, public companies add more and more crypto to their balance sheets, helped by a change of rule in 2024, allowing the “market brand” representing digital assets. Although this trend is expanding demand, it also introduces new systemic risks. Companies that finance the crypto that buy with convertible debts may be forced to sell if the refinancing options dry or that prices fall strongly.
Regulatory clarity
Regulatory developments should also reshape the market, according to the report.
The Senate recently adopted the Genius Act, a Bipartite de Stablecoin bill that heads to the Chamber. A broader bill of the structure of the market, the Clarity Act, aims to define the roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the supervision of digital assets. If it is adopted, it could clarify the rules for transmitters and investors.
Furthermore, the SEC envisages more than 80 Crypto ETF applications, including funds and multi-active proposals involving stake and altcoins. Some decisions could be made in July, and the others should be finalized by October.
Overall, bitcoin seems ready to benefit from both macro and structural winds in the second half, while altcoin prospects will depend on the navigation of a regulatory environment and more complex and still evolving liquidity, depending on the report.
