By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin fell to around $107,000 after spending several days recovering from last week’s selloff that wiped out billions of leveraged positions. The slowdown is now being interpreted by analysts as a market reset rather than a collapse.
On-chain data from Glassnode suggests that recent volatility has eliminated excess leverage without damaging long-term market structure. Funding rates have plunged, futures open interest is falling and realized losses indicate traders are reducing risk rather than abandoning their positions altogether.
However, for Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at XS.com, bitcoin is “trapped in a bearish structure” as it successively forms lower highs and lower lows.
“For a significant reversal to occur, the asset must recover and hold solidly above the $111,000 threshold, which would help restore the confidence needed to stabilize the trend,” Hasn wrote in an email. “Until then, market rallies will likely be seen as temporary corrective measures within a broader downtrend.”
Still, some crypto market participants see this as a buying window. BitMine, led by Tom Lee of Fundstrat, has committed $800 million to its already massive ether treasury, while Blockchain.com has led negotiations to take it public via a US SPAC deal.
Similarly, Ripple-backed Evernorth Holdings has signed a SPAC deal to list on Nasdaq as it targets over $1 billion to create the “largest public treasury XRP.”
At the same time, macroeconomic changes support risky assets. Stock prices are rising as U.S.-China trade tensions ease and nervousness about credit risks at regional U.S. banks eases. Gold is down more than 2% to $4,265 as capital becomes risky again.
The technical setup appears to be what is dragging the broader crypto market lower, with the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) down 3.56% in the past 24 hours and all members trading lower.
“The broader crypto market continues to experience a deep deleveraging phase, with traders retreating as volatility increases and confidence in maintaining higher levels fades,” noted Hasn.
“If this trend persists, it could later serve as the basis for a more resilient bullish recovery once macroeconomic and liquidity conditions improve,” he wrote, echoing his colleague Linh Tran. Stay vigilant!
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- October 21, 11:35 a.m. ET: Galaxy Digital (GLXY) is hosting a Q3 2025 Post-Earnings AMA on X.
- Macro
- October 21, 8:30 a.m.: September inflation rate in Canada. Title YoY Est. 2.3%, MoM Est. -0.1%. Core YoY (previous 2.6%), MoM (previous 0%).
- October 21: The Federal Reserve hosts the Payments Innovation Conference in Washington, DC. Watch live.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- October 21: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-market.
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- GnosisDAO is voting on a proposal to fund ProbeLab with $105,000 to develop detailed performance and security metrics for Gnosis Chain’s P2P network. Voting closes on October 21.
- 1inch DAO votes to remove Unicorn Power’s 5% staking requirement for Fusion resolvers. Voting closes on October 21.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Symbolic discussion
By Olivier Knight
- South Korean exchanges Upbit and Bithumb listed a number of low-market-cap tokens on Tuesday, sparking a series of explosive moves higher.
- Upbit notably added with won and dollar trading pairs. SynFutures is a decentralized derivatives exchange that hopes to rival HyperLiquid and Aster.
- F soared more than 50% post-listing before giving back some of the gains. Trading volume increased by 669% to over $200 million.
- Bithumb, on the other hand, has listed ZORA and RECALL. The former increased by more than 10%, while RECALL moved in line with the broader market.
- Post-quotation increases bucked the altcoin market trend on Tuesday, with several assets facing double-digit downward moves. The CoinDesk 80 Index fell 4.5% in the past 24 hours.
- CAKE and ETHFI both lost 10%, while ETH, BNB, and SOL all fell 4-5% as negative sentiment returned to the market.
- Traders are currently analyzing whether the market’s rebound over the weekend has formed a lower low, indicating a downtrend and a potential reversal of the bear market after new record highs less than a month ago.
Positioning of derivative products
- The Bitcoin futures market is showing a measured recovery, with open interest increasing to $26.06 billion as traders gradually re-engage.
- The three-month annualized basis remains stable in the neutral to bullish range of 5-6%. Importantly, funding rates have returned to essentially neutral or positive levels, indicating that the short-term conviction previously observed has dissipated. OKX is currently leading this development with a high positive rate of 7.51%.
- The BTC options market is strongly bullish, supported by growing expectations of future price fluctuations. The term structure of implied volatility is ascending, indicating that the market expects volatility to increase over time.
- At the same time, the delta skew of 25 increases over all periods and now exceeds 11.86%. This high positive bias confirms that traders are paying a significant premium for upside exposure – calls – reflecting significant conviction for a sustained rally, despite the near-neutral 24-hour put-call volume, which is 49% to 51% in favor of puts.
- Data from Coinglass shows $320 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with a 76% to 24% split between long and short positions. BTC ($88 million), ETH ($85 million) and others ($33 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations.
- Binance’s liquidation heatmap shows $112,300 as the base liquidation level to watch, in case of a price rally.
Market movements
- BTC is down -2.98% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $107,816.26 (24 hours: -2.62%)
- ETH is down 3.3% at $3,867.69 to $2,607.45 (24 hours: -3.84%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 3.6% at 3,566.33 (24 hours: -3.46%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 2 Basis Points to 2.84%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0035% (3.7931% annualized) on Binance
- The DXY is up 0.27% at 98.85
- Gold futures are down 1.91% at $4,276.00
- Silver futures are down 5.43% at $48.60
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.27% at 49,316.06
- Hang Seng closed 0.65% higher at 26,027.55
- The FTSE is up 0.21% at 9,423.22
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,678.39
- DJIA closed Monday up 1.12% at 46,706.58
- The S&P 500 closed up 1.07% at 6,735.13
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.37% at 22,990.54
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 1.02% at 30,416.44
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.11% at 2,916.62
- The 10-year US Treasury yield is down 1.6 bps at 3.972%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.12% at 6,765.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.11% at 25,276.25
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.18% at 46,827.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.6% (unchanged)
- Ether/bitcoin ratio: 0.03587 (-0.36%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,133 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $46.49
- Total fees: 2.93 BTC / $324,314
- CME Futures Open Interest: 144,835 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 25.6 ounces
- BTC vs. gold market capitalization: 7.23%
Technical analysis
- After hitting $111,000 yesterday, BTC was rejected from the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) and is now trading around $107,900.
- For bulls to maintain momentum, a daily close above the 200-day EMA and a weekly close above $107,400 would help confirm the swing failure pattern established in early September.
- On the other hand, the 50-week EMA, currently around $100,200, remains the next major support area on a longer time frame.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Monday at $343.78 (+2.31%), -1.54% at $338.50 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $130.81 (+3.42%), -0.95% at $129.57
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $39.65 (+4.95%), +2.3% to $40.56
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $58.76 (+2.96%), -1.77% at $57.72
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $20.73 (+5.93%), -2.03% at $20.31
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $22.01 (+9.89%), -1.95% at $21.58
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $18.81 (-1%), +3.14% to $19.40
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $20.4 (+4.48%), -1.08% at $20.18
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $59.77 (+2.64%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $26.13 (+5.11%), -0.92% at $25.89
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $296.61 (+2.33%), -1.94% at $290.85
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $23.65 (+2.03%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $14.79 (+3.14%), -2.16% at $14.47
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $5.72 (+5.93%), -2.97% at $5.55
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.98 (+5.32%)
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flows: -$40.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $61.47 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.35 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$145.7 million
- Cumulative net flows: $14.47 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.78 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you were sleeping
