By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin appears to be gaining bullish momentum, with volatility expected to increase as prices approach the $3 billion trigger point.
The leading cryptocurrency by market value surged as high as $72,100 during European hours, the widely tracked average price over the past 50 days. According to analysts, a firm move above this level would confirm bullish momentum, potentially attracting more buyers.
Volatility is expected to increase if prices approach $75,000. This is where options market makers, who ensure order book liquidity and a smooth trading experience, hold net “short gamma” positions worth $3 billion, according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.
This means that as prices rise towards this level, these entities are likely to buy to rebalance their net exposure to neutral, even if prices rise. This so-called broker hedging could increase market volatility, potentially accelerating any rally. Note that market makers make money from the bid-ask spread, not price direction.
“The options market has approximately $3 billion in negative gamma exposure at the $75,000 strike price, meaning traders are likely short gamma around this level. As Bitcoin progresses toward this region, broker-covering flows may begin to play a larger role in shaping price momentum,” Thielen said in a note to clients.
However, this is not a concrete scenario. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, fears macroeconomic headwinds could halt Bitcoin’s gains.
“External factors are acting as headwinds, including rising oil and dollar prices, as well as the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indexes falling to 200-day lows. We doubt Bitcoin has the strength to withstand the wind for long, and internal resistance could soon become a significant obstacle to growth,” he said in an email.
Traditional markets indeed send signals of risk aversion. The strongest clue comes from the US Treasury market, which supports global finance. The MOVE index, which measures expected 30-day turbulence in Treasury bond prices, jumped more than 21% to 95 points on Thursday, the biggest one-day rise since October 2024, according to data source TradingView.
Sharp increases in Treasury volatility often tighten currencies around the world, choking off credit flows and triggering broad market sell-offs. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- Macro
- March 13, 8:30 a.m.: US GDP growth rate, second QoQ estimate for Q4 East. 1.4% (previous 1.4%;)
- March 13, 8:30 a.m.: US Core PCE Price Index MoM for January Est. 0.4% (previous 0.4%)
- March 13, 8:30 a.m.: US MoM personal spending for January Est. 0.3% (previous 0.4%)
- March 13, 10:00 a.m.: US JOLTS job offers for January Est. 6.7 million (previous 6.542 million)
- March 13, 10:00 a.m.: Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment, preliminary for March (previous 56.6)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 13: Bit Digital (BTBT), pre-market, -$0.01
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- No major calls planned.
- Unlocks
- March 13: WhiteBit Coin (WBT) will unlock 27.77% of its circulating supply worth $4.59 billion.
- Token Launches
- March 13: Distribution of Ether.fi KAT token rewards.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 2.95% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $72,457.14 (24 hours: +3.14%)
- ETH is up 2.92% at $2,128.69 (24 hours: +3%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 3.14% at 2,068.83 (24 hours: +3.01%)
- Ether CESR composite staking rate up 1bp to 2.79%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0015% (1.6688% annualized) on Binance
- The DXY is up 0.42% at 100.16.
- Gold futures are down 0.44% at $5,093.40
- Silver futures are down 2.11% at $82.89
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 1.16% at 53,819.61
- Hang Seng closed 0.98% lower at 25,465.60
- The FTSE 100 is down 0.43% at 10,260.60
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.71% at 5,708.34
- DJIA closed Thursday down 1.56% at 46,677.85.
- The S&P 500 closed down 1.52% at 6,672.62
- The Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.78% at 22,311.98
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 0.84% at 32,840.60
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.43% at 3,611.39.
- The 10-year US Treasury yield is up 6 basis points to 4.27%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.30% at 6,697.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.29% at 24,631.50
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.34% at 46,881.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.44% (0.24%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.0294 (0.01%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 984 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $31.34
- Total fees: 2.69 BTC / $188,598
- CME Futures Open Interest: 110,290 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 14.2 ounces.
- BTC vs. gold market capitalization: 4.82%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows the daily fluctuations of the Bitcoin price in candlestick form since the end of 2025. It also depicts the Fibonacci retracements of the January-February sell-off and the 50-day simple moving average of the Bitcoin price.
- BTC price is looking to break above the 50-day SMA line. This would shift the focus to the next resistance level at $74,564, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the selloff.
- On the other hand, failure to penetrate the 50-day SMA could embolden sellers, potentially leading to a decline below $70,000.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Thursday at $193.23 (–2.72%), +1.96% to $197.02 in pre-market
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $114.18 (+1.21%), +0.58% to $114.84
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.63 (–3.87%), +1.89% to $21.02
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.76 (+2.46%), +1.60% to $8.90
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $14.50 (–2.09%), +1.59% to $14.73
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.24 (–1.81%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.55 (–2.65%), +1.57% to $9.70
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $9.96 (–8.71%), unchanged in pre-market
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): Closed at $37.96 (–2.47%)
- Bull (BLSH): closed at $36.24 (–2.55%), +0.44% at $36.40
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $137.34 (–0.72%), +2.49% at $140.76
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $8.83 (–4.33%), +1.59% to $8.97
- SharpLink (SBET): closed at $7.48 (–1.45%), +2.54% to $7.67
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.93 (–9.71%), +4.61% at $0.97
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.15 (–1.71%)
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flows: $53.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.93 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: $72.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.75 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.71 million
Source: Farside Investors
