By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
The crypto market remains volatile, with the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) little changed over 24 hours and bitcoin price consolidating above $90,000. Sounds boring, right?
But this price action actually validates the oversold conditions signaled by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on Tuesday, when BTC first explored lows below $90,000. The same day, CoinDesk reported that the RSI reading was to be validated by those signature doji candles – those with lower wicks – which tell you that sellers might be losing their grip.
Guess what? These indices appeared as consecutive daily candles with long lower wicks (see TA section), signaling the inability of the bears to keep prices below $90,000. Coupled with the oversold RSI, it appears the downtrend may be running out of gas.
The timing of this signal couldn’t be more interesting, as the much-delayed US nonfarm payrolls data for September is expected to be released later today.
Of course, this is old news. Additionally, the Labor Department said it would not release the October report, which could deepen divisions within the Fed over cutting interest rates. But even though there’s a good chance the market will ignore this number, the crypto market is currently battered and bruised, starving for good news.
Market sentiment is crushed, fear is rampant, and bitcoin has already fallen 30% from its all-time high of $126,000. Investors are on the bearish side and have lowered their expectations for a Fed rate cut to 30%, compared to 98% a month ago.
This is precisely the context in which good news – extremely weak payroll data that spurs bets on a rate cut, for example – can trigger a short squeeze and rally. So, with all of these elements in place, don’t be surprised if we see some bullish volatility lighting up the market.
In other key news of note, Ripple executives are openly discussing the possibility of introducing native staking on the XRP Ledger to expand the role of XRP in DeFi.
Base co-founder Jesse Pollak announced on X that his personal token, JESSE, would be launched on the Base app, expanding the layer 2 ecosystem.
In traditional markets, the yen continued to weaken against the dollar, even as domestic government bond yields jumped, a sign of fiscal stress reflected in foreign exchange markets. Traders are closely watching for signs that the Bank of Japan may intervene to stop the currency’s slide. Stay vigilant.
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- Macro
- November 20, 8:30 a.m.: Canada October PPI. Annual title (previous 5.5%), MoM (est. 0.3%).
- Nov. 20, 8:30 a.m.: Nov. East Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. -3.1.
- November 20, 8:30 a.m.: The delayed US employment report for September is expected to be released.
- November 20, 10 a.m.: Eastern. of existing home sales in October in the United States. 4.08M.
- November 20, 11 a.m.: Speech by Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook on “financial stability.” Watch live.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- November 20: Webull (BULL), post-market, $0.02.
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and governance calls
- Unlocks
- unlocks 7.29% of its circulating supply worth $25.71 million.
- unlocks 2.97% of its circulating supply.
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 1.5% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $91,891.98 (24 hours: +0.48%)
- ETH is up 0.69% at $3,009.62 (24 hours: -2.6%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 1.79% at 2,950.83 (24h: -0.55%)
- Ether CESR composite staking rate is down 9 basis points to 2.86%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0073% (8.0088% annualized) on Binance
- The DXY is unchanged at 100.18
- Gold futures are down 0.52% at $4,061.70
- Silver futures are down 0.38% at $50.66
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 2.65% at 49,823.94
- Hang Seng closed unchanged at 25,835.57
- The FTSE is up 0.72% at 9,575.42
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.94% at 5,594.21
- DJIA closed Wednesday up 0.10% at 46,138.77
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.38% at 6,642.16
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.59% at 22,564.23
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 0.81% at 30,278.41
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 3,070.06
- The 10-year US Treasury yield is up 0.8 bps to 4.139%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 1.09% at 6,734.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 1.42% at 25,072.00
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.54% at 46,458.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.29% (+0.01%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03278 (-0.81%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,070 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $38.22
- Total fees: 3.33 BTC / $302,253
- Open interest on CME futures: 133,250 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 22.6 ounces.
- BTC vs. gold market capitalization: 6.14%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows the daily price action of BTC in candlestick form with the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) in the bottom panel.
- Consecutive daily candles with long tails (wicks) indicate the inability of the bears to keep prices below $90,000.
- This, coupled with the oversold reading of the RSI, suggests a possibility of a price rebound.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Wednesday at $257.29 (-1.72%), +1.83% to $261.99 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $69.72 (-8.98%), +1.31% to $70.63
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $25.76 (+0.7%), +3.45% to $26.65
- Bull (BLSH): closed at $36.39 (-3.63%), +0.85% at $36.70
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.1 (-6.57%), +3.60% to $11.50
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $13.35 (-4.23%), +3% to $13.75
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.39 (-0.26%), +7.47% to $16.54
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.22 (-5.46%), +4.11% to $10.64
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $40.4 (-3.42%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $14.48 (-7.48%)
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $186.5 (-9.82%), +2.7% at $191.54
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $19.73 (-8.28%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.87 (-6.45%), +2.84% at $10.15
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.69 (-7.72%), +8.18% to $2.91
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.78 (-7.77%)
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flows: $75.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $58.28 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.32 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$37.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12.86 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.25 million
Source: Farside Investors
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