By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin gained 2% in the last 24 hours, reaching $68,000 after a sell-off earlier this month. This did little to ease sentiment, with the “Fear and Greed” index remaining at the “extreme fear” level for a 20th consecutive day.
André Dragosch, head of Europe research at Bitwise, said consolidation was expected after the crash, which saw bitcoin fall to a low of $60,000.
“Outside of Covid, Bitcoin generally does not show a V-shaped recovery after large capitulations,” he told CoinDesk. “The most likely case is that we continue to move sideways down.”
Dragosch nevertheless pointed to signs of optimism. Prediction markets now put the chance of the US Clarity Act passing in 2026 at almost 80%. He described the bill as a major catalyst for alternative tokens such as ether (ETH) and solana (SOL). Bitwise’s internal crypto asset sentiment index is neutral, he added.
“On a macroeconomic level, Bitcoin continues to exhibit significant ‘discounts’ relative to the global money supply, gold, and the overall macro growth outlook. Bitcoin also exhibits significant undervaluation relative to global Bitcoin ETP flows,” Dragosch said. “ETP flows are still relatively weak, but once risk appetite and flows return, this suggests we could see a significant catch-up in bitcoin.”
However, caution remains in order. Data from CryptoQuant shows that large Bitcoin holders have moved their coins to Binance at record levels. Such transfers often signal an intention to sell, increasing supply in spot markets and potentially depressing prices.
Dragosch dismissed fears that Bitcoin could be a “canary in the macro coal mine,” signaling a liquidity crunch and growing recession risk. The U.S. yield curve and other leading indicators suggest continued growth in the money supply, he said. Global liquidity is increasing by more than 10% per year, a backdrop that typically does not correspond to prolonged Bitcoin bear markets, he added.
Indeed, predictive markets have reduced the risks of a recession in the United States this year. The chance of this happening has fallen from over 40% in mid-2025 to just over 20%.
The crypto market could nevertheless see volatility increase this weekend. Later today, data from the US core PCE index will be released, which could provide clues about the Fed’s future policy direction.
Traders are bracing for a sharp rise from previous numbers. While higher inflation traditionally supports arguments for scarce assets, a hawkish response from the Fed could push the dollar higher, putting additional pressure on risk assets over the weekend. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- Macro
- February 20, 8:30 a.m.: American Core PCE MoM price index for December est. 0.4% (previous 0.2%); East. 2.9% over one year (previous 2.8%)
- February 20, 8:30 a.m.: QoQ Adv US GDP growth rate for Q4 est. 3. (previous 4.4%)
- February 20, 9:45 a.m.: US S&P global manufacturing PMI flash for February east. 52.6 (previous 52.4).
- February 20, 10 a.m.: Final Michigan Consumer Confidence in the United States for February, est. 57.3 (previous 56.4)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- Aavegotchi DAO votes to consolidate assets from depleted wallets into the liquidity wallet to simplify operations. Voting closes on February 22.
- Fluid DAO votes to move 1 million GHO and 1 million FLUID from the treasury to the Multisig team to fund JupLend rewards and protocol incentives. Voting closes on February 22.
- GMX votes on a proposal to implement tiered trading fee reductions for punters and a punter-weighted trading ranking. Voting closes on February 22.
- Unlocks
- February 20: LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 5.98% of its circulating supply worth $48.33 million.
- February 20: Kaito (KAITO) will unlock 10.64% of its circulating supply worth $10.77 million.
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 1.97% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $68,220.42 (24 hours: +1.98%)
- ETH is up 1.1% at $1,969.19 (24 hours: +0.12%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 1.5% at 1,960.80 (24h: +1.14%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 2 Basis Points to 2.83%
- BTC funding rate is -0.0047% (-5.1936% annualized) on Binance
- The DXY is unchanged at 97.95
- Gold futures are up 0.97% at $5,046.00
- Silver futures are up 3.9% at $80.66
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 1.12% at 56,825.70
- Hang Seng closed 1.1% lower at 26,413.35
- The FTSE is up 0.69% at 10,700.09
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.48% at 6,088.42
- DJIA closed Thursday down 0.54% at 49,395.16
- The S&P 500 closed down 0.28% at 6,861.89
- The Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.31% at 22,682.73
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 0.61% at 33,594.98
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.83% at 3,738.74
- The 10-year US Treasury yield is down 0.4 bps to 4.071%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% at 6,890.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.29% at 24,930.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 0.12% at 49,516.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.04% (+0.4%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02883 (-0.93%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,046 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $29.88
- Total fees: 2.36 BTC / $157,285
- Open Interest on CME Futures: 119,935 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 13.5 oz.
- BTC vs. gold market capitalization: 4.54%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows the weekly price movement of Bitcoin against the dollar.
- BTC/USD is still trading at its 200-week exponential moving average, awaiting confirmation by the end of the week.
- There are no clear RSI divergences or signs of a bottom so far.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Thursday at $165.94 (+1.15%), +1.98% to $169.23 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $61.92 (-1.95%), +2.08% at $63.21
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.63 (-0.46%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $32.37 (+1.63%), -1.05% at $32.03
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $7.96 (+6.13%), +1.63% to $8.09
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $16.22 (+4.71%), +1.36% to $16.44
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.98 (+4.11%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.82 (+5.93%), +1.43% to $9.96
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $40.69 (+1.62%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.42 (+5.47%)
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $129.45 (+3.39%), +2.48% at $132.66
- Strive (ASST): closed at $8.12 (+0.87%), +0.99% at $8.20
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.80 (+3.03%)
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.67 (-3.33%), +3.48% at $0.69
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.10 (+0.00%)
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flows: -$165.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $53.91 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.26 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$130.1 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.55 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.73 million
Source: Farside Investors
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