Crypto market supported by weaker-than-expected CPI print, with Bitcoin rising above $110,000 in the form of ether comes to around $4,000.
Positive investor sentiment appears to be strongly aligned with bitcoin, with CoinMarketCap’s “altcoin season” indicator hitting its lowest level in over 90 days as bitcoin’s dominance continues to rise.
Positioning of derivative products
By Jacob Joseph
- Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility, as measured by Volmex’s BVIV index, fell from 52% to 45% over two days, partly retracing the peak seen on October 10. The decline signals an easing of market anxiety alongside a similar reset on Wall Street.
- Options data from Deribit shows that BTC’s seven-day volatility risk premium (VRP) has turned negative, a sign of a return to calm.
- The dealer’s gamma profile indicates positive gamma accumulation from $112,000 to $120,000. This means that traders trade against the market within this range, thereby stopping price volatility.
- Generally speaking, BTC puts continue to trade at a premium to calls across all maturities, reflecting continued downside fears and call crushing, particularly at the long end of the curve.
- ETH options show bullish trend beyond December expiration.
- Open interest (OI) for perpetual futures tied to most major tokens has increased over the past 24 hours. Leading the pack are PUMP futures, with an OI gain of over 14%. Large capital inflows in the form of non-serious tokens often precede market corrections.
- Funding rates for TRX and ZEC have turned slightly negative, indicating a bias towards bearish short positions. In the case of ZEC, traders with long exposure to the spot market could similarly hedge with short futures bets.
Symbolic discussion
By Olivier Knight
- CoinMarketCap’s “altcoin season” index fell below 25/100 for the first time in the last 90 days as it enters “bitcoin season.”
- The decline reflects a deterioration in sentiment in the altcoin market, with assets like FET, 2Z, BONK and WIF all losing more than 50% of their value over the past three months.
- Bitcoin’s dominance has also increased from 57% to 59% since September 13, a sign that investors are avoiding speculative bets on the altcoin in favor of bitcoin, which has stubbornly held between $100,000 and $126,000 since July.
- Altcoins, meanwhile, fell victim to a cascade of liquidations earlier this month, as a massive sell-off caused exaggerated withdrawals, wiping liquidity from the order book.
- Even though some have recovered from the selloff, many remain at critical support levels to create a bearish market structure.
- This is despite a wave of digital asset treasury (DAT) companies investing in altcoins throughout 2025, with a lack of retail demand failing to maintain consistent momentum.
