Fifty days into 2026, Bitcoin is experiencing its worst start to a fiscal year on record, according to data from Checkonchain. The asset is down 23% year to date, after falling 10% in January and another 15% in February.
Bitcoin has never recorded a consecutive decline in January and February, according to Coinglass data. While there have been double-digit declines in January in years like 2015, 2016 and 2018, each of them was followed by a positive February. If the losses continue, Bitcoin is also on track for its weakest consecutive monthly performance since 2022.
Checkonchain data shows that in a typical bear year, the average index reading is 0.84, 50 days later, a benchmark that traders often use to gauge cyclical declines. While bitcoin is currently at 0.77, highlighting the magnitude of the pullback.
This weakness follows a 17% decline in 2025, a post-election year. Historically, post-election years have tended to outperform election years and have outperformed previous years overall, further highlighting the recent underperformance.
