Bitcoin broke through the $74,000 resistance zone that it had rejected four times in two weeks, and this time the move has more behind it than a short squeeze.
The largest cryptocurrency was trading just above $74,000 Monday morning, up 2.9% over the past 24 hours and up 9.7% for the week. Ether jumped 7.7% in 24 hours and 14.3% over the week to $2,261, its strongest weekly performance in months. Solana jumped 5.6% on the day and 12% on the week to $93.
Dogecoin hit $0.10 for the first time since early March, up 4.6% daily and 10.6% weekly. BNB gained 3.8% to $683 with a weekly gain of 9.5%. XRP rose 4.2% to $1.47, up 8.9% over seven days.
The catalyst was a tonal shift in several directions at once. Trump said the United States was talking with Iran, although Tehran denied requesting talks or a ceasefire. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz was closed only to ships of “enemies”, a notable softening from the general closure that had been in force.
Two tankers carrying liquefied petroleum gas to India crossed the strait on Sunday, the first commercial transit since the start of the war.
Oil reflects the change in mood. Brent was trading around $104 after rising as high as $106.50 following the strikes on Kharg Island, but retreated as headlines from Hormuz hit the headlines. WTI fell below $100. The dollar weakened by 0.3%. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.5%, poised for their first gain in five days. MSCI’s global stock gauge stabilized after three days of decline.
For crypto, the combination of easing oil, a weaker dollar, and even a hint of de-escalation is the exact macro cocktail that loosens the liquidity chain that has been choking risk assets since the start of the war.
The weekly figures are the most impressive since before the war. Bitcoin’s 9.7% gain is significant, but the altcoin’s outperformance is a signal that risk appetite is truly returning. When ether outperforms bitcoin by 4.6 percentage points and solana outperforms by 2.3 points on a weekly basis, capital moves down the risk curve rather than hiding in bitcoin.
The Fed meeting on March 17 and 18 comes in a different context than a week ago.
Oil is still high, but the Strait of Hormuz showing signs of reopening is changing the inflation calculus. The dot plot and Powell’s press conference on Wednesday will determine whether the market’s rate cut hopes survive or are dashed.
