Crypto’s year-end setup is still positive, according to Coinbase Institutional’s Q4 2025 report “Charting Crypto: Navigating Uncertainty” produced in collaboration with Glassnode.
The team characterizes its stance as cautious but biased upward after the October 10 upheaval. Coinbase associates the decline with high leverage responding to thin order books, then worsening when automatic deleveraging of some exchanges capped market makers’ shorts and drained liquidity. The company says prices stabilized over the weekend, but the band remained tepid as macroeconomic concerns resurfaced.
Liquidity and macro are the focus of Coinbase’s outlook.
The company’s M2 global money supply index — which Coinbase says historically tracks bitcoin and tends to lead by about 110 days — began the quarter in a favorable position, although the report cautioned that conditions could tighten later in the fourth quarter. Coinbase also plans two additional rate cuts from the Federal Reserve before the end of the year, a change it says could pull some liquidity out of money market funds and redirect it toward risk.
Politics and market plumbing complete what Coinbase calls a constructive setup.
The report highlights stable coin supply and monthly volumes at or near record highs – evidence, according to Coinbase, that more payments and transfers are moving on-chain. He also notes that the U.S. spot ETF infrastructure for bitcoin and ether continues to deepen, improving access for traditional allocators and increasing market depth. According to Coinbase, these developments are less about the headlines and more about the rails that keep usage and liquidity flowing despite volatility.
Regarding positioning, Coinbase favors bitcoin, citing its role as “digital gold” amid lingering doubts about fiscal and monetary discipline. The report says ether also looks constructive: large-scale advancements have pushed more activity toward Layer 2 networks while fees have fallen, and sentiment has improved year-to-date. An investor survey included in the report shows that a majority of institutions are bullish on BTC over the next three to six months, although many pointed to the macroeconomic backdrop as the main risk.
Coinbase dedicates space to digital asset treasury (DAT) companies, describing them as significant and relatively stable buyers of BTC and ETH. The company says this cohort now holds a notable share of circulating supply and remains an important source of demand. At the same time, Coinbase acknowledges open questions regarding long-term business models, especially after recent weakness in the group’s stock markets.
The report does not rule out short-term dangers. Coinbase points to the absence of US data related to the government shutdown, the risk of liquidity disappearing in November, and the uncertainty around DATs as reasons to maintain disciplined size and time horizons.
Even so, Coinbase Institutional’s results are stable: Liquidity conditions, policy progress, and on-chain usage expansion – led by stablecoins and maturing ETF plumbing – remain favorable through the end of the year, with Bitcoin best positioned to take the lead if these supports hold.
