Yes, you read the title correctly. The Bullish Bitcoin Number Bets, called long BTC/USD positions, on the OG exchange Bitfinex have reached multi-month highs.
But, bulls, rejoice not, as this metric has become a classic “contrary indicator” over the years, with upticks characterizing downward trends in Bitcoin prices.
Highest since 2023
The number of BTC/USD long positions increased to 79,343, the highest since November 2023, according to data source CoinDesk.
A rise in bullish bets generally signals increasing upward pressure – a positive reading. But historically, the market has done just the opposite, falling just as Mother Nature turns sunny forecasts into storms.
For example, the number of BTC/USD long positions increased by 30% during the last quarter of 2025, as the BTC spot price fell by 23% to $87,550. Similar trends have been observed in recent years, as shown below.
BTC price bottoms when Bitfinex long positions peak – and recovers as they decline. Prices peak (like in October) when long positions bottom out, then prices slide as long positions climb.
Analysts have already explained this conundrum by saying that the crowd usually has no idea, so bet against them.
So, the latest surge in long positions suggests that Bitcoin’s volatile price action between $65,000 and $75,000 may soon end in a selloff, deepening the downtrend that began above $100,000 last year. It goes without saying that past results do not guarantee future results.
That said, other factors, such as reports that the United States is considering deploying troops to the ongoing war in Iran, the oil price shock, and fears of a Fed rate hike, also favor the bearish thesis.
At press time, bitcoin was trading around $66,400, according to CoinDesk data.
