Circle’s USDC (CRCL) surpassed Tether’s USDT in trading volumes for the first time since 2019, prompting Japanese investment bank Mizuho to raise its price target for the stablecoin issuer from $100 to $120, while reiterating its neutral rating on the stock.
Shares rose 1% in early trading to $115.40 and are up about 95% from their February lows.
Analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins increased their estimates for Circle, citing “USDC activity trends and use cases like Polymarket or agent trading expectations.”
Stablecoins, digital tokens backed by reserves such as fiat currency or gold, serve as key payment and settlement channels in the crypto economy, particularly for cross-border exchanges and transfers. The sector is dominated by Tether’s USDT with a market capitalization of $143 billion, followed by Circle’s USDC with $78 billion.
According to its report on Friday, USDC has seen around $2.2 trillion in adjusted trading volume so far in 2026, compared to USDT’s $1.3 trillion. This gives USDC a roughly 64% share of adjusted volumes, a sharp reversal from 2019-2025, when Tether was consistently in the lead, and USDC averaged a roughly 30% share.
Analysts said this change is important because the long-term winner among stablecoins will likely be determined by actual economic usage rather than market capitalization alone. Standard Chartered expects the stablecoin market capitalization to reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028.
Reflecting stronger USDC activity and expanding use cases, Mizuho analysts have made several long-term Circle forecasts. They now expect “significant holdings” to reach 11.7 million by 2027, up from a previous estimate of 10 million, helping to push USDC’s projected market cap to $139 billion from $123 billion.
Circle has recently outperformed other crypto-related stocks.
Analysts at William Blair said in a note released Thursday that while recent gains could easily be linked to rising oil prices and a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve, other factors are likely behind the move.
Rather, they highlighted the resilience of USDC’s market cap despite the broader crypto downturn, as well as investors’ growing recognition of Circle’s business model and its leadership in stablecoin infrastructure.
Other analysts have pointed out that the recent rise in stocks was due to a short squeeze driven by positioning rather than fundamentals.
Although the company saw strong growth in USDC supply, the stock’s outsized post-earnings reaction was driven more by massive pre-release short bets than strong financial data, according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.
Learn more: Circle’s Outperformance Highlights USDC’s Sustainability, Bullish Wall Street Analyst Says
