Wall Street bank Citigroup is lowering its expectations for Coinbase (COIN) amid risk aversion gripping markets.
In a note to clients Friday, the bank’s analysts lowered their price target on the cryptocurrency exchange from $505 to $400, citing lower trading volumes, slowing institutional activity and continued uncertainty over the timing of U.S. crypto legislation.
The new price target of $400 is still more than double COIN’s closing price last night, at $146. The same analyst team raised their price target on COIN to $505 in July 2025, as the stock hit an all-time high near $450.
Shares rose 6% premarket Friday as crypto markets recover a bit from Thursday’s crash that saw bitcoin plunge as low as $60,000.
Despite the near-term reset, the company reiterated its Buy/High Risk rating, calling Coinbase a category leader and the biggest beneficiary of potential crypto reform. Progress on CLARITY, Citi said, remains the key catalyst to reignite the stock’s momentum.
The bank now expects negotiations in the Senate on the market structure bill to extend beyond 2026, although preparatory work continues.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said his company withdrew support for a sweeping digital assets bill after finding provisions that could have harmed consumers and stifled competition.
The bill has repeatedly lost steam as crypto and banking lobbyists clash over stable coin yield, while lawmakers from both parties remain deadlocked over several other provisions.
Marking current crypto market prices, analysts led by Peter Christiansen cut their near-term forecast, reducing Coinbase’s Q4 2025 net income by about 10% to $1.69 billion, about 4% below consensus.
After factoring in a $2.3 billion drop in the market value of crypto holdings and Coinbase’s stake in Circle (CRCL), analysts now forecast a GAAP EPS loss of $2.64 for the fourth quarter.
Coinbase will report its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results after the close on February 12.
Learn more: Citi says CLARITY Act momentum building, but DeFi fight could stall crypto bill
