Wall Street broker Bernstein is sticking with his most aggressive Coinbase (COIN) call on the Street, an Outperform rating and a $510 price target, even through a market pullback and bitcoin rollover. volatility has dented sentiment for cryptocurrency-related stocks.
In a Monday note by analysts led by Gautam Chhugani, the broker described the current setup as “fragile,” with volatile crypto price action spilling over into public market proxies.
But the company’s analysts argued that this downturn is unlike previous cryptocurrency crises because the underlying businesses appear to be resilient and the froth is more narrowly concentrated. Bernstein highlighted speculative excess largely confined to “MSTR copycats,” while describing larger players as making more lasting changes in how they monetize the market.
For Coinbase, this change is at the heart of the bullish thesis. Analysts said the exchange is working to reduce its reliance on spot trading by creating an “everything exchange,” something closer to a comprehensive financial platform than a single-product crypto venue.
Analysts have noted that stablecoins have already become a significant contributor to Coinbase’s revenue, but investors often continue to view ancillary activities, such as staking and custody, as another form of crypto-beta.
In Bernstein’s view, clearer U.S. regulatory rules are the key catalyst that could reevaluate these lines, accelerate Coinbase’s expansion and reduce the advantage historically enjoyed by offshore rivals that listed tokens more quickly and captured fundraising fees.
The broker also said Coinbase is moving more toward token issuance through a launchpad-style approach, which could generate success fee revenue while creating a flywheel: more issuance fueling more listings and, ultimately, higher trading activity. Bernstein cited Monad’s list as evidence of the demand for this model.
A key catalyst ahead
Another element of the bullish argument is a near-term product catalyst: Coinbase’s planned product presentation on Dec. 17, which Bernstein said will highlight areas that expand the company beyond spot trading, including tokenized stocks and prediction markets.
The company also highlighted a growing push into derivatives, aided by Deribit, as a trend that could make Coinbase increasingly resemble brokers such as Robinhood (HOOD), with the two models converging as each adds more products traditionally associated with the other.
On the consumer side, the report flagged Coinbase’s Base app as a potential on-ramp that combines wallet functionality, payments and social features, with broader access to tokens via on-chain integrations.
Overall, the broker framed Coinbase’s strategy as a pivot from a primarily spot-focused exchange to a broader distribution and services platform, one that it believes can get worse through regulation, new issuances and expanding product offerings, even if short-term sentiment remains hostage to cryptocurrency volatility.
Coinbase shares were up 3.7% at press time, at $269.42, bringing the upside potential of Bernstein’s price target to almost 90%.
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