Ron Hammond, head of policy at crypto market maker Wintermute, takes a cautious view of the Clarity Act, estimating its chances of passage this year at around 30%, even as momentum builds in Washington.
“There are a lot of moving parts,” Hammond said, pointing to a legislative process that is moving forward, but unevenly. The Clarity Act aims to create rules around the regulation of the crypto market structure in the United States, including codifying how the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission can supervise digital assets in the United States.
Hammond’s estimate broadly aligns with other market signals. A recent Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and staffers puts the probability at 26%, while Kalshi’s market predictions are just above the probability. This discrepancy highlights how uncertain the trajectory of the bill remains.
Still, Hammond, who will speak at CoinDesk’s Consensus Miami conference next month, sees incremental progress. Lawmakers are working to move the bill through committee, with some aiming for a vote as early as April 20, although he cautioned that those deadlines have been fluid for months.
“These dates are moving,” he said. “There is light at the end of the tunnel, but there are obstacles along the way. »
Passage of the Clarity Act is widely seen as a key building block for institutional adoption of crypto, as it would establish clear rules on which digital assets are securities versus commodities, and define how they can be traded, custody, and otherwise regulated in the United States.
The current fragmented and uncertain framework has kept many large asset managers, banks and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce this ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to increase their exposure, launch new products, and more fully integrate crypto into traditional financial systems.
Obstacles
At the center of these obstacles: the banks.
According to Hammond, traditional financial institutions remain the biggest obstacle, particularly when it comes to the question of whether stablecoins should offer a return. A recent report from the Council of Economic Advisers pushed back against the banks’ opposition, but negotiations remain stalled.
“There have been attempts from several sides: Coinbase (COIN), the White House, the drafters of the bill, to find a solution,” Hammond said. “But at every turn, the banks refuse to give in.”
The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise. Hammond said a “performance deal” proposed about two weeks ago had satisfied neither side, sending negotiators back to the drawing board. A new version is now circulating, but expectations are tempered.
“Even with broader macroeconomic pressures, it’s hard to see how banks could be happy here,” he said.
Democrats
This resistance is shaping the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats. Hammond noted that some lawmakers who have accepted funding for the crypto industry now face a difficult balancing act.
“If you are a Democrat who took cryptocurrency, what is your position on this issue? he said, also highlighting unresolved concerns around decentralized finance (DeFi) and anti-money laundering compliance.
Other political headwinds could arise in the months to come. Hammond pointed to ongoing scrutiny of former President Donald Trump’s crypto-related transactions as a potential flashpoint that could complicate Democratic support if it intensifies around June.
“It all becomes another headache,” he said.
Despite the friction, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable, albeit narrow, path forward. Progress in committee and continued negotiations could keep it alive until mid-year, when political incentives could change.
“There will be progress soon,” he said.
American expansion
For Wintermute, the stakes are high. The company, one of the world’s largest crypto market makers with a daily trading volume of approximately $10 million, is expanding its presence in the United States and growing its team in New York.
Hammond said this reflects a broader industry commitment to the U.S. market, particularly in what companies see as a more favorable regulatory environment. “Wintermute has expanded its operations since the election by establishing a US office in New York and we are actively recruiting,” he added.
This makes the outcome of the Clarity Act all the more consequential. While Hammond sees “light at the end of the tunnel,” he stressed that its passage to 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proven elusive.
For now, 30% remains his figure, and is a reminder that progress in Washington does not always translate into results.
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