By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin is stuck in a tight range near $66,600 ahead of the Good Friday holiday, as geopolitical tensions and changing macroeconomic expectations keep prices contained.
Although the cryptocurrency saw an uptick over the past 24 hours, it failed to break above $67,000. The country is in trouble as US President Donald Trump announced a tougher stance on Iran, now threatening the country’s infrastructure.
Brent crude has reached $120 a barrel in spot markets, levels not seen since 2008, due to the current crisis and its effects on the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil transport that has been effectively closed.
This surge in energy prices has raised inflation expectations and undermined the case for cutting rates, a key support for Bitcoin’s recent rally. Inflation in Europe has already reached 2.5%, driven by energy costs.
These pressures revealed a fracture in the market structure. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs remain consistent, with $22 million in net inflows this week. But data from CryptoQuant shows that total apparent demand has turned negative, with large holders distributing more than they accumulate.
Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have lost nearly 188,000 BTC since last year’s peak, according to the data. Nearly half of all bitcoins in circulation are trading, at current prices, at a loss.
Heading into the long weekend, liquidity is expected to remain tight. This leaves Bitcoin exposed to potentially higher volatility depending on developments in the Middle East or macro-related statements. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- Macro
- April 3, 8:30 a.m.: US nonfarm payrolls for March est. 48,000 (previous -92,000)
- April 3, 8:30 a.m.: US unemployment rate for March est. 4.5% (previous 4.4%)
- April 3, 10:00 a.m.: US ISM Services PMI for March (previous 56.1)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- SSV Network DAO votes on two proposals to integrate ENS names for base protocol contracts to strengthen security against phishing and to establish a price floor for public operators to ensure economic sustainability. Voting closes on April 3.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 0.35% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $66,785.73 (24 hours: +0.65%)
- ETH is unchanged at $2,058.20 (24 hours: +0.94%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.26% at 1,902.32 (24 hours: +0.80%)
- Ether CESR composite staking rate up 1bp to 2.77%
- BTC funding rate is -0.0007% (-0.7731% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 99.99
- Gold futures are up 1.07% at $4,701.30
- Silver futures are up 0.60% at $73.17
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 1.26% at 53,123.49
- Hang Seng closed 0.70% lower at 25,116.53
- The FTSE 100 is unchanged at 10,436.29
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.26% at 5,678.00
- DJIA closed Thursday down 0.13% at 46,504.67
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.11% at 6,582.69
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.18% at 21,879.18
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 0.46% at 33,108.20
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is down 1 basis point to 4.31%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.12% at 6,613.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.10% at 24,167.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 0.10% at 46,678.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.54% (-0.24%)
- Ether/bitcoin ratio: 0.030821 (0.23%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 997 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $30.68
- Total fees: 2.54 BTC / $170,134
- Open Interest on CME Futures: 106,230 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 15.9 ounces
- Market capitalization BTC vs gold: 4.46%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows daily fluctuations in the Tether dominance rate in candlestick form. The dominance rate represents the share of the Tether stablecoin in the total crypto market.
- The dominance rate increases again after a temporary pullback or counter-trend correction. This breakout suggests that the broader uptrend in dominance has likely resumed.
- This has bearish implications for the broader market, as dollar-pegged assets like Tether typically gain dominance during market-wide sell-offs.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Thursday at $171.46 (–0.88%), unchanged after hours
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $17.64 (+1.55%), +0.28% to $17.69
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.71 (+8.33%), –1.03% at $8.62
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $12.86 (+2.47%), unchanged at $12.86
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.23 (+6.08%), –0.62% at $16.13
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.79 (+1.97%), unchanged at $8.80
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $6.10 (–8.68%), –0.80% at $6.05
- CoinShares Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $35.76 (+2.58%), –0.17% at $35.70
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): close at $90.26 (–0.53%), +0.60% to $90.80
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.37 (+3.71%), –0.19% at $36.30
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): close at $119.83 (–2.40%), +0.34% at $120.24
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $9.75 (–4.04%), +0.10% to $9.76
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.19 (–4.18%), +0.32% to $6.21
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.98 (–1.32%), –2.12% at $0.95
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.12 (–0.88%), unchanged at $1.12
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flow: $9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.93 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.28 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flow: -$71.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.51 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.69 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you were sleeping
French ship crosses Strait of Hormuz in first transit through Western Europe during Iran war (euronews): The news could encourage other carriers to resume operations if the corridor proves reliable in the coming days and it follows Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi’s announcement of an agreement with Oman to secure traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
US repatriates Chinese fugitive in sign of stabilizing ties (The Wall Street Journal): It is the first such case in recent years and is described as a rare move that indicates cooperation ahead of the Trump-Xi summit scheduled for next month.
Iran Strikes Gulf Energy Sites as Trump Warns of Further Attacks (Bloomberg): Iran targeted more sites in Arab Gulf states including Kuwait on Friday morning, hours after Trump made new threats against Iranian infrastructure to pressure Tehran into peace negotiations.
Japan ratchets up pressure on currencies as volatility rises, signaling willingness to act (Reuters): The yen, trading near the psychologically key mark of 160 to the dollar, lingered at levels that fuel fears of market intervention, underscoring growing unease over the speed and scale of its decline.
