The final week of March promises to be volatile, with the FTX Recovery Trust expected to distribute $2.2 billion to creditors on Tuesday and key monthly U.S. nonfarm payrolls statistics expected on Friday, when many stock markets around the world will be closed for Good Friday.
The war in the Middle East, now in its fifth week, is also critical. The conflict has disrupted key energy and transportation infrastructure in the region, in turn leading to higher inflation expectations and a significant shift in monetary policy expectations, Luke Deans, senior research associate at Bitwise, told CoinDesk.
“Bitcoin, a highly reflexive and liquidity-sensitive asset, generally reacts earlier to changes in risk appetite and has been revalued downward since October 2025,” Deans said. “This suggests that digital assets began to reflect tighter financial conditions before many traditional risk assets.”
Global macroeconomic forces, he added, remain the main drivers of risk sentiment. While liquidity will certainly play a role, the market environment remains fragile given ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
What to watch
(All times ET)
- Cryptocurrency
- Macro
- March 30, 9:30 p.m.: Chinese NBS manufacturing PMI for March (previous 49.0); Non-manufacturing PMI (previous 49.5)
- March 31, 5:00 a.m.: Flash on the euro zone inflation rate year-on-year for March (previous 1.9%); Core (previous 2.4%)
- March 31, 9:00 a.m.: S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 US Home Price Index YoY for January (previous 1.4%)
- March 31, 9:45 a.m.: Chicago US PMI index for March (previous 57.7)
- March 31, 10:00 a.m.: Consumer confidence from the American Conference Board for March (previous 91.2)
- March 31, 10:00 a.m.: US JOLTS job offers for February (previous 6.946 million)
- March 31, 7:50 p.m.: Tankan index of the Japanese manufacturing sector for the first quarter (previous 15)
- April 1, 8:15 a.m.: change in ADP employment in the United States for March (previous 63,000)
- April 1, 10:00 a.m.: US ISM manufacturing PMI index for March (previous 52.4)
- April 2, 8:30 a.m.: first unemployment claims in the United States for the week ending March 28 (previous 210,000)
- April 3, 8:30 a.m.: US nonfarm payrolls for March est. 48,000 (previous -92,000)
- April 3, 8:30 a.m.: US unemployment rate for March est. 4.5% (previous 4.4%)
- April 3, 10:00 a.m.: US ISM Services PMI for March (previous 56.1)
- Earnings (estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 30: Nano Labs (NA), pre-market
Token Events
- Votes and calls on governance
- Stake DAO CRV and BAL vote on their bi-weekly gauge to distribute CRV and BAL inflation among various liquidity pools. Voting closes on March 31.
- SuperRare DAO votes to consolidate its treasury management under the RareDAO Foundation by migrating remaining balances and officially concluding its legacy network engagement and grant programs. Voting closes on March 31.
- Aventus DAO votes to simplify AVT issuances to a flat daily rate, increase node staking requirements, and replace ongoing fees with an upfront allocation of application chain tokens. Voting closes on March 31.
- Unlock DAO votes to transfer 3 ETH to its multisig base to exchange for USDC to cover current and future operational expenses. Voting closes on April 2.
- Aavegotchi DAO votes to elect nine multi-signature signatories, maintain a signature threshold of 5 out of 9 and set their quarterly remuneration at $1,000 paid in GHST. Voting closes on April 2.
- Arbitrum DAO is voting on two proposals to transform its code of conduct and procedures into living documents managed by OpCo and move to ArbOS 60 Elara. Voting closes on April 2.
- SSV Network DAO votes on two proposals to integrate ENS names for base protocol contracts to strengthen security against phishing and to establish a price floor for public operators to ensure economic sustainability. Voting closes on April 3.
- Lisk DAO votes to test the Degov.ai governance platform before Tally shuts down by executing a 0 LSK transfer. Voting closes on April 7.
- Unlocks
- April 1: to unlock 1.10% of its circulating supply worth $38.29 million.
- April 2: Ethena (ENA) will release 2.18% of its circulating supply worth $16.05 million.
- April 6: Hyperliquide (HYPE) will release 2.66% of its circulating supply worth $379.31 million.
- Token Launches
- March 30: BASED token generation event will take place.
- March 31: edgeX token generation event (EDGE).
- March 31: WorldLand (WL) will be listed on KuCoin, Gate and others.
- April 1: Orexn (OXN) enters a phased exchange listing period following the token generation event.
