Hello, Asia. Here is what is news on the markets:
Welcome to the morning briefing in Asia, a daily summary of the best stories during the hours and an overview of market movements and analyzes. For a detailed overview of the American markets, see the Americas of the Coindesk Crypto Daybook.
While Asia begins its day of negotiation, Bitcoin
Exchange above $ 104,500 and, despite a possible imminent war in the Middle East, was relatively stable during the day with a negligible market movement. Indeed, for the last full week, the BTC is only decreasing by 2%, according to data from the Coindesk market.
Analysts debate if the current silence of the cryptographic market is a sign of strength or if something more precarious is in progress.
Three new reports this week of cryptochant, Glassnode and the trading company Flowdesk all point to the same surface conditions: low volatility, tight price action and controlled activity on the channel. In addition, detail participation has decreased and institutional actors, from FNB to whales, now shape the structure of flows.
But it is cryptocurrency which flashes the most urgent warning.
In its June 19 report, Cryptoant argued that the BTC could soon review $ 92,000 in support or even drop to $ 81,000 if the request continues to deteriorate.
Punctual demand always increases, but below the trend. ETF flows have dropped by more than 60% since April, while the accumulation of whales has halved. Short -term holders, who are generally more recent market players, have lost around 800,000 BTC since the end of May.
Their request for demand momentum, which follows the directional purchasing force through key cohorts, now reads 2 million negative BTCs, the lowest of the cryptocurrency data set.
Glassnode, however, sees the same signals and arrives at a much less disastrous conclusion.
In its weekly chain update, the company recognizes that Bitcoin blockchain is “silent”, which means that the number of transactions is decreasing, the costs are minimal and that minors’ income is moderate.
However, this suggests that it may not be a weakness, but rather a reflection of the evolution of the network. The chain settlement volume remains high, but it is concentrated in high value transfers, which suggests that the chain is increasingly used by institutions and whales.
The derivative market, notes Glassnode, now eclipses activity on the chain, with long -term volumes and options regularly exceeding the stain from 7x to 16x.
This change brought a more sophisticated coverage, of collateral best practices and a more mature, but less frantic market structure.
France, based in France, Flowdesk, a market manufacturer and a business company, has opinions that are somewhere between the two.
While noting altcoin flows and flat -marked procedural volumes, its June 19 update describes the market as “rolled up”, and not cracking.
Flowdesk highlights an increase in token workers, such as the golden back Xaut (up 56% in volume), the growth of stablescoin and the increase in RWA activity.
For them, low volatility can simply be calm before a directional break, which is not necessarily downward.
But in the end, no one seems to hold a reliable card for what awaits us.
Even polymarket is not sure. The bettors give an almost equal chance that the BTC drops to $ 90,000 in June or to $ 115,000.
One thing is certain: the fight against war between upward institutional activities and the demand for retail potentially opens Bitcoin to spectacular movements on each side of the trade, which will probably dictate the next chapter of the market.
Presto Research says that Crypto cash companies are less likely than you think
A new Presto Research report maintains that CRYPTO cash companies (CTC), such as strategy and metaplanet, are not only FNB Bitcoin on motive, but a new form of financial engineering with less risks than many investors assume.
The latest increase in the strategy, which has raised nearly a billion dollars via perpetual privileged actions, shows how BTC volatility can be used to the advantage of a transmitter.
These securities, as well as convertible obligations and equity sales to the market, allow CTC to finance the accumulation of aggressive cryptography without triggering the risk of margin.
Presto underlines that the BTC of the strategy is not placed and that the Metaplanet links are not guaranteed, which means that the collateral liquidation, the main trigger in the bellows of past crypto like Celsius and three arrows, is largely absent here. This does not eliminate the risks, but it changes nature.
The real challenge, supports Presto, is not the exposure to cryptography itself but the discipline to manage dilution, cash flows and capital calendar.
The metric “Bitcoin renders” of Metaplanet, which measures BTC by entirely diluted share, reflects this focus on the value of shareholders.
As long as CTCs can manage financial mechanisms behind their accumulation strategies, they will earn NAV premiums, as well as strong growth companies in traditional markets. But if they poorly calculated, the same tools that feed their ascent could speed up their fall.
Semler Scientific Maps Bold plan to have 105,000 BTC by 2027
Semler Scientific (NASDAQ: SMLR) has unveiled one of the most aggressive bitcoin accumulation routes in the history of the company, announcing detention plans of 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025, 42,000 by 2026 and a narcotic 105,000 at the end of 2027.
The manufacturer of medical devices based in California, which spilled a Bitcoin cash strategy last year, effectively tries 24 x its current Bitcoin hiding place of 4,449 rooms in the next 30 months.
It plans to do so using a combination of equity, debt financing and operational cash flow flows.
But the long -term path is not guaranteed. The main mechanism of sowing for the acquisition of Bitcoin, selling new actions within the framework of its At-The Market (ATM) program, relies on the negotiation of the company to a bonus at its active value (NAV).
According to strategy-tracker data, the MNAV of Semler is currently at 0.859x, which means that the market values the equity of the company lower than its BTC participations, effectively reducing its capacity to lift accredited capital.
This dynamic made something of a paradox in the world of Bitcoin vouchers: a high conviction without a bonus to finance his purchases. Even if Bitcoin has reached heights of all time above $ 100,000, the shares of Semler have dropped by almost 40% over the year.
Market movements:
- BTC: Bitcoin remains blocked below $ 105,000 despite strong FNB entrances, with repeated resistance to $ 105,150 and signs of institutional accumulation compensated by a short-term lower momentum and macro-valatility.
- ETH: Ethereum found the support at $ 2,490 after a high volume sale has broken the key levels, the price consolidating in a tight range in the middle of geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty, the signaling potential for a break if a resistance of $ 2510 is eliminated.
- Gold: Gold hovered at almost $ 3,366 on Thursday, little changed while increasing geopolitical tensions compensate for the pressure of the bellicist position of the Fed, while the platinum retired after reaching a summit of almost 10 years; The American markets remained closed for Juneteenth.
- Nikkei 225: The Nikkei 225 of Japan opened 0.24% on Friday, while the markets in Asia-Pacific increased mainly before the Chinese loan rate decision and in the midst of the current tensions Israel-Iran.
