Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao announced a new BNB chain prediction market this week in an article on X highlighting predict.fun, a platform built by a former Binance employee that allows user funds to earn yield while positions remain open.
The new market allows users to place bets while earning passive income on idle funds.
This setup aligns with industry efforts to address a key inefficiency. Traders must lock up their capital without earning anything while waiting for events to resolve.
Polymarket and Kalshi are now adding staking rewards, cash incentives, or point systems to forecasts to keep users engaged and offset the opportunity cost of long-running markets.
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Predict.fun currently lists two markets with a combined volume of around $300,000.
The site claims more than 12,000 users with nearly 300,000 bets made.
This difference in scale remains significant. Polymarket generated more than $3 billion in total trading volume, well ahead of Kalshi’s approximately $587 million. Smaller platforms like Limitless made about $10.9 million, according to Polymarket Analytics.
Concentration reflects a liquidity dynamic that favors established sites. New entrants often see spikes in activity during rewards campaigns, but struggle to retain users once the incentives wear off.
Predict.fun, however, relies on the support of BNB Chain, which leads all chains in terms of number of active wallets – users – and has seen active addresses almost double in the last year, according to onchain analysis, with Token Terminal calculating a 25% market share.
While this looks promising, BNB Chain has a significant gap in stablecoin issuance, limiting the liquidity available to Predict.fun.
For now, the most immediate test is whether Predict.fun can catch up to smaller competitors like Limitless and create stable volume, something BNB Chain’s large user base can help but won’t guarantee in a market where liquidity advantages accumulate quickly.
