- A new report from TrendForce gives us some nuggets of optimistic information about the AMR crisis
- It appears that retail prices are currently falling in the United States, Europe and especially China.
- The big picture hasn’t changed much, according to memory chip makers, but we can still hope that this is the start of a turnaround – at least for consumers.
If you were hoping for good news on RAM prices, well, there are some glimmers of hope on the horizon – although we’d obviously be very foolish to get carried away with any optimism.
VideoCardz has spotted various positive signals mainly coming from analyst firm TrendForce, which has released a new report (based on numerous sources) on the current drop in RAM prices.
This includes recent observations we’ve already discussed, like the 7% drop in the price of DDR5 RAM in the German retail market in March (which is echoed elsewhere in Europe). The report notes that this is also reflected elsewhere, notably in the US and Chinese retail markets, where it is happening even more pronouncedly.
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Wccftech recently reported that a 32GB Corsair DDR5 RAM kit was down 20% in the US, for example, and that in China, 16GB DDR5 sticks were down around 25% to 30% since hitting record prices in January through February (on “local e-commerce platforms”).
32GB kits in China are also down 15% or more, we’re told, and Harukaze5719 at
And to top it all off, we’re told that spot prices have fallen sharply at one of Shenzhen’s major electronics malls, with the price of 32GB RAM modules falling by as much as a third in some cases.
Part of the reason is that consumers are now seeing sky-high RAM prices – which, despite the declines seen, remain ridiculously expensive, especially in the US and Europe – and are simply refusing to buy. This is an inevitable “softening” of consumer demand, as TrendForce puts it.
From a broader perspective in terms of technological developments, we also have Google’s TurboQuant which reduces the memory demands imposed by AI. And while Hardware Canucks reports
Analysis: a welcome drop in retail
So what do you think of all this?
On the one hand, TrendForce notes Bai Wenxi, vice president of the China Enterprise Capital Alliance and chief economist for the China region (via Chinastarmarket.cn): “Longer term, he expects the structural imbalance between supply and demand to gradually ease, with a potential normalization of prices for 16 GB DDR5 modules by the end of 2026.”
This likely refers to the Chinese market, and no other forecast predicts RAM prices will stabilize this year – at all. Even the brightest predictions say this won’t happen until 2027 at the earliest (and many estimate 2028, and others still think normalization won’t happen until the end of the decade).
Additionally, TrendForce clearly states that Taiwan-based memory chip makers “maintain strict pricing discipline overall,” so their profits are not (yet) significantly declining. TrendForce says: “So far, contract pricing has remained firm and demand for HBM and server-side DRAM has remained largely intact, with major suppliers apparently locked into multi-year agreements with key customers. »
So this mostly seems to be a drop in retail prices – although that’s obviously great news for consumers, even if the big RAM vacuums on the commercial side don’t really get a break.
The report concludes: “Overall, the current DDR5 price correction appears to be a short-term consumer-driven adjustment rather than a definitive signal of a structural deterioration in demand. »
Still, I’ll take this, and there is a small wave of more optimistic predictions here, which are certainly welcome given the general very negative mood around memory price hikes. As always, we need to watch the months ahead and keep our fingers crossed that retail prices continue on this downward path.
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