Hello, Asia. Here’s what’s making news on the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of the top news stories during U.S. business hours and insight into market movements and analysis. For a detailed look at US markets, check out CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Bitcoin was hovering around $101,000 at the start of Friday’s trading day in Hong Kong, as on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant warned that market conditions had become “extremely bearish.”
In its latest weekly report, CryptoQuant said Bitcoin’s decline below the 365-day moving average of $102,000 marked the loss of key technical and psychological support that previously defined the bottom of this bull cycle. The company’s Bull Score – a composite measure of market strength – fell to zero for the first time since June 2022, a signal last seen before the previous bear market.
CryptoQuant added that on-chain price ranges made by traders now indicate potential downside targets near $72,000 if BTC fails to quickly recover above $100,000.
It also identified the $91,000 region, based on Metcalfe’s network assessment model, as the next level of structural support. “Failure to quickly recover the 365-day moving average could trigger a much larger correction,” the company said.
The report follows weeks of weakening fundamentals, including lower inflows, reduced network activity, and a flattening of key on-chain valuation metrics. CryptoQuant analysts said the pattern now resembles late 2021, when a similar breakout below the long-term average confirmed the start of an extended pullback.
However, this view is not universal.
In a report released earlier this week titled “Defending the $100,000,” Glassnode wrote that the market remains “cautious, oversold, but not yet deeply capitulated,” with 71% of the supply still in profit and unrealized losses contained to just 3.1% of market cap.
As long-term holders sell and ETF outflows continue, Glassnode says the current phase is a mid-cycle correction rather than the start of a bear market.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin fell as low as $100,420 overnight before recovering slightly to trade around $101,000 in Asian hours, extending a week-long decline that erased nearly 7% of its value.
ETFs: Ether fell to an intraday low of $3,285 before returning to $3,310 in early Asian trading, down about 2% on the day and about 13% over the past week.
Gold: Gold rebounded toward the $4,000 level on Wednesday, rising 1.5% to $3,989.53 an ounce, as investors sought safety amid a selloff in global stocks, even as strong U.S. jobs figures tempered expectations of a further Fed rate cut.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets opened lower on Friday, tracking Wall Street’s tech-related selloff as AI stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft and Palantir slumped, while investors awaited trade data from China expected to show weakness in exports and imports.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
- What DraftKings and FanDuel’s Prediction Market Means for the Sports Betting Industry (Breakdown)
- Samurai wallet developer sentenced to 5 years in prison for transferring money without a license (CoinDesk)
- Central Bank of Ireland fines Coinbase Europe $25 million for failing to meet anti-money laundering oversight obligations (The Block)
