Karachi / Islamabad:
Massive floods in Pakistan have struck the rural heart and industrial centers for the first time for decades, causing billions of dollars in damage while tightening food supply, exports and fragile economic recovery.
The government had been optimistic around 2026, which breaks a growth of 4.2% on the back of a rebound in agriculture and manufacturing after the economy was stabilized as part of a bailout of the international monetary fund of $ 7 billion.
Instead, the record rains of the monsoon since the end of June, amplified by the barrage outings in India, submerged large expanses of Punjab and Sindh, the two most populated and economically vital provinces.
While waters have not yet fallen into many districts, managers and analysts warn that the blow could be deeper than in 2022, when a third of the country was underwater, due to double shocks for agriculture and manufacturing.
In the plains, satellite images have traced the scale. A report by the agricultural surveillance initiative Geoglam estimates at least 220,000 hectares of flooded rice fields between August 1 and September 16.
In Punjab, the engine of rice, cotton and cotton and corn in Pakistan, 1.8 million acres of agricultural land was flooded, according to the provincial disaster management agency. “About 50% of rice and 60% of cotton and corn crops have been damaged,” said Khalid Bath, president of Pakistan Farmers Association.
He said the losses could exceed 2.5 million acres, up to 1 billion of rupees ($ 3.53 billion). “This is different from everything we have seen in recent decades,” said Iqrar Ahmad Khan, former vice-chancellor of the University of Agriculture Faisalabad.
He believes that at least one tenth of the country’s crops are destroyed, vegetable losses exceeding 90% in certain districts.
The timing is perilous: Pakistan is about to sow wheat, the harvest which provides almost half of the caloric contribution of the country.
The national reserves remain comfortable after a strong harvest of 2024, according to Crop Monitor, but the sowing window is at risk in the fields always smooth with silt and mud. “Food insecurity is coming, not just higher prices,” said Khan.
Count the losses
In industrial cities such as SIALKOT – a hub for textiles, sports items and surgical equipment underlying Pakistan exports – several workshops were brown. The stroke of agriculture is also a blow for manufacturers.
Industrialists claim that cotton deficits will repercussions in the textile sector, the best employee of foreign exchange in the country, while rice exporters warn the risks of Pakistan to lose competitiveness in India as prices increase.
“We had 400 acres of cotton, but only 90 are left,” said farmer Rab Nawaz, near the historic city of Multan.
