2025 may not be the year of the foldable phone, but if Apple finally enters the space in 2026, we could be in a large turnaround.
This is the last message of the analysts of Counterpoint Research, who explained that 2024 was a year of almost imperceptible foldable growth and, probably more worrying, 2025 will be slightly down.
The counterpoint research rings this bell since the end of last year when it produced a similar report. Now, almost five months after the start of the year, they see no sign that 2025 will even meet the 2024 flat sales numbers. It is probably a frustrating turn of events for Samsung, Google, Oppo, Huawei and Motorola, which are all deeply invested in the category.
Overall, foldable phones have never represented more than 2% of the entire smartphone market. A factor that could retain the foldable market is the price. Some of the best folding phones cost the one of a standard flagship product.
Many of these companies have not yet made convincing uses to fold the phones, apart from “Do you want to have a small tablet in your pocket which does not take up more space than a standard phone?” [Author’s Note: Yes. Yes, I do]
While consumers remain without inspiration, technological companies do not seem to be invested in the category. Honor and recent OPPO entries help develop the small market share of the category of smartphones in folding phones, but especially outside the United States.
Folding phones will not disappear from our digital landscape. In fact, counterpoint research indicates that the market is preparing for resurgence.
“It is certainly not a sign of peak of the market; it is rather a sign of regrouping before 2026, which should be exciting and rejuvenating for the segment with the entrance to Apple and a multitude of shells,” wrote the main counterpoint analyst Jene Park.
Most rumors now indicate that Apple enters the foldable market in 2026, which is a Lynchpin of this resurgence.
It’s a familiar story.
Apple’s category of product category is generally the one where it looks at other players wading with bizarre and lower entrants. Then he dives with something beautiful and apparently obvious, a product that captivates consumers and the media.
This occurred with MP3 readers at the turn of the century (iPod) and later with smartphones focused on the screen (iPhone) then tablets (iPad). In each case, Apple was by no means the first, but it quickly became the best and most desirable.
The foldables are somewhat different, however, because while the market stagnates, the products are generally considered to be excellent. Of course, Samsung, Google and others did no favor by not always putting the best cameras and absolute technologies in each folding handset. Even so, they are also excellent and versatile.
I tested the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 6 and the Google Pixel 9 Pro Fold, and I love each of them. They are well built, thin, relatively light, powerful, full of AI and generally fun to use as phones and as tiny tablets.
Yes, they can be prohibitive, but you know that prices will eventually fall.
Apple’s entry, however, will prove to be a game changer. I bet even Samsung, Google and others are desperate to enter the fray and invigorate the market. Counterpoint Research believes that a fold of iPhone 2026 will quickly eat a large part of the small folding phone market, but also instantly agrees.
I tend to agree with them. When I ran an anecdotal survey on X asking who consumers could buy a smartphone, Apple led the land with Samsung, which was in space longer than any other business, a second close.
Most rumors assume that even if Apple will bring a lot of peak features such as a liquid metal hinge and an extremely thin chassis probably borrowed from the air of the iPhone 17, it will not reduce the price at the price. Most think that the iPhone fold could be in the $ 2,000 range.
It is a lot, not much pro vision, but it will mean that a simple exchange of iPhone 16 Pro will not be enough to affect most costs. You will have a high monthly payment for the pleasure of having the first foldable of Apple, and I think that people will be happy to pay as much for an iPhone fold.
There is a chance that Apple can go with a slightly different design direction with its iPhone fold, and instead of hunting the fold Z 6 and other folding tablets, it could provide a real shell.
Folded, the folding iPhone X would be the size of a 6 -z flip (but thinner). Deppedient, it would be the size of an iPhone 16 Ultra -Mance – so the slimter with an iPhone 17 air, but the screen size of an iPhone 16 of 6.1 inch.
It would be attractive on two fronts: a more portable factor in shape and probably a much more attractive price.
For the moment, it’s a waiting game. Apple did not suggest its folding plans, and there is no indication of a flexible surprise phone in September. But WWDC 2025, the next Apple developer conference is a few weeks old, and it could be the perfect platform to tease these plans.
Such a movement could either reverse the fortune in 2025 of Roldable, or depress them more because more potential foldable customers decide to retain until Apple finally ships the iPhone fold.
