A diplomatic pariah a year ago, Pakistan became a trusted regional partner and mediator between the United States and Iran to end the war in the Middle East, a remarkable transformation for the country.
Chief of Defense Force (CDF) and Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir held several meetings with President Donald Trump, including an unprecedented one-on-one lunch at the White House, while the government apprehended an Islamic State suicide bomber accused of killing US troops and handed him over to the United States.
In other measures aimed at restoring the country’s credibility, its diplomats have launched a massive outreach program to world leaders, while consolidating ties with China.
“Pakistan’s civilian and military leaders have been on a charm offensive, primarily aimed at balancing U.S.-China relations, while seeking to employ a diversified foreign policy,” said Arsla Jawaid, global risk analyst at Control Risks. Reuters.
“All of these efforts are starting to show signs of success.”
Since Osama bin Laden was killed by Navy SEALs in Pakistan in 2011, ties with the United States and the West have collapsed. The imprisonment of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and accusations from Washington that Pakistan was supporting the Taliban behind the scenes during Afghanistan’s 20-year war have only made matters worse.
Economically, Pakistan was dangerously close to default until a new deal with the International Monetary Fund was reached after tough negotiations about 18 months ago.
Analysts and government officials cite two turning points in rebuilding trust between Pakistan and Washington.
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The first breakthrough came in March last year, when Pakistan helped capture a suspect linked to the 2021 Kabul airport bombing in which 170 Afghans and 13 U.S. troops were killed, drawing public thanks from Trump and further intelligence sharing.
Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan’s former ambassador to the United States, said cooperation was “essential” to ending decades of mistrust.
In May, a clash with India, an old enemy, reinforced this shift.
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tahir Andrabi said the 90-hour conflict significantly boosted Pakistan’s diplomatic reputation as “the country’s military leadership showed enormous restraint after successfully shooting down Indian warplanes.”
Pakistan was quick to involve the United States in efforts to end the conflict between its nuclear-armed neighbors and subsequently nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Levers of power
CDF Munir’s visit to the White House, the first time a sitting US president received Pakistan’s military chief without the presence of civilian leaders, played a pivotal role.
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Government officials said the country’s transformation was driven by a strong civil-military alliance and its ability to effectively juggle relations with Gulf countries, as well as the United States and China.
“If there is one factor that has fueled the expansion of diplomatic opportunities for Pakistan above all, it is the trust and symbiosis between the field marshal and the prime minister,” said Mosharraf Zaidi, spokesperson for Prime Minister Shehbaz.Reuters.
Both Zaidi and Andrabi highlighted diplomatic initiatives taken from their offices, as well as a series of almost daily meetings and phone calls with world leaders.
On Sunday, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar received his counterparts from Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Egypt for talks focused on ending the war in Iran.
“Due to Dar’s frequent interactions with these foreign ministers, they can share intimate comments as well as a solemn moment,” Andrabi said.
Favorite Marshal
Ties with Washington have since deepened through frequent contacts between Pakistan’s civilian and military leaders and the White House.
CDF Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz held talks with the United States that focused on investment opportunities, a crypto deal with a Trump family-linked company and security in the Middle East, anchoring Pakistan’s transformation with a mix of trade deals and geopolitical alliances.
CDF Munir, whom Trump called his “favorite field marshal,” was the only active military leader at the World Economic Forum in Davos this year. Sources said there have been other interactions with Trump and that he has spoken several times with Vice President JD Vance since the start of the Iran war.
Vance communicated with Pakistani intermediaries about the Iran conflict as recently as Tuesday, according to a source briefed on the matter, making clear that Trump was open to a ceasefire if certain demands were met.
Prime Minister Shehbaz, meanwhile, has held repeated meetings with Trump as well as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Pakistan signed a mutual defense agreement with Saudi Arabia last year.
Heartburn in India
Pakistan’s rise on the international stage, however, is causing heartburn in India, which generally enjoys the higher diplomatic profile of the two rivals. His opposition has called into question the government’s hands-off approach to the Middle East war, and analysts say Islamabad’s rise risks leaving New Delhi on the sidelines of regional diplomacy.
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“I have been calling for almost three weeks now on India to take a leading position, leveraging its good relations with both sides, in a peace initiative,” said opposition MP Shashi Tharoor. “Now apparently Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey have done it. Good luck to them… but India gets no credit while Pakistan leads the peace talks.”
However, the economy remains in the doldrums and analysts say it risks being drawn into war over the defense deal with Saudi Arabia.
Islamabad is also embroiled in its own conflict with Afghanistan, which erupted days before the United States and Israel launched strikes on Tehran.
Pakistan “must continue to look inward to strengthen its own pillars of national power, especially its economy,” said Uzair Yunus of strategic consultancy The Asia Group.
“It must also build an integrated defense industrial complex in partnership with Saudi Arabia and Turkey.”
Islamabad would need a long-term strategy to balance its ties with Iran, its defense partnership with Riyadh and its relations with Washington in an unpredictable and potentially protracted conflict, said Jawaid of Control Risks.
“Civil and military leaders will need to be very careful about the role and extent of Pakistan’s involvement. Exaggerating the mediator card could prove more damaging if not handled astutely.”
