By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
While gold crossed the $4,000 per ounce mark for the first time, bitcoin lost 1.25% of its value and the broader crypto market, as measured by the coinDesk 20 Index (CD20), fell 3%.
The drop came amid profit-taking after the crypto market rose more than 7.7% in less than a week and as paper whale gains increased. The divergence also comes as the US Dollar Index (DXY) hits its highest level in two months.
Gold, long considered a safe haven, is up more than 50% this year. Flows into gold-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have accelerated, with holdings now at their highest levels since late 2022, according to ING.
Investors are seeking to protect against growing political risk, including a new leadership crisis in France and growing tensions in Japan’s fiscal policy direction. Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown, now in its second week, has delayed key economic data and increased concerns about the fiscal outlook.
Bitcoin, while often seen as a hedge against uncertainty, has been hit by the rising US dollar and short-term whales moving their BTC to exchanges, suggesting they have moved to secure their profits.
Adding to Bitcoin’s headwinds is the sharp rise in Japanese government bond yields, which this week reached their highest level in 17 years. The 10-year yield reached 1.70%, factoring in fiscal risks linked to new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Abenomics-inspired spending program.
Pressure from Japan’s aggressive yields could spill over into global bonds, according to Goldman Sachs. Higher bond yields tend to tighten financial conditions globally and reduce investor appetite for riskier assets like BTC.
Yet institutional interest in Bitcoin remains. U.S.-listed cash ETFs added more than $3 billion in inflows last week, bringing total net inflows past $60 billion. This week, another $2 billion was reported, according to SoSoValue.
Other developments include S&P Global unveiled the benchmark Digital Markets 50 index that tracks 15 cryptocurrencies and 35 cryptocurrency-related stocks, while the Intercontinental Exchange made a $2 billion investment in crypto-native predictions market Polymarket.
“In the near term, Bitcoin’s fundamental outlook remains positive, supported by expectations of monetary easing, continued ETF inflows and continued safe-haven demand,” Linh Tran, market analyst at XS.com, said in an emailed statement. “If the Fed gives clearer signals about the start of a rate reduction cycle at future meetings, Bitcoin will likely continue to benefit, with room to advance into new price territories in the fourth quarter.”
The next test could come from the Federal Reserve. Traders are pricing in rate cuts, and if the Fed confirms an easing path, gold and bitcoin could see renewed momentum.
Stay vigilant!
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- Macro
- October 8, 9:30 a.m.: Fed Governor Michael S. Barr speaks at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference in St. Louis. Watch live.
- October 8, 2:00 p.m.: Minutes of the September 16-17 FOMC meeting.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- ZKSync DAO is voting on a proposal to allocate 25 million ZK tokens (~$1.25 million) for the “Privium Roadshow” until the end of 2026. Voting closes on October 8.
- GMX is holding elections for Season 3 of its listing committee, which will select three members to oversee and approve new asset listings on GMX protocols. Voting closes on October 8.
- Jito DAO votes on a proposal to expand the validator set from 200 to 400 and update StakeNet’s ranking and eligibility criteria to address negative stake pool dynamics. Voting closes on October 8.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
- October 8: Sky (SKY) will be listed on BitFlyer.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Symbolic discussion
By Olivier Knight
- BNB chain activity continues to dominate the altcoin sector this week; generating a daily gain of 10% for and a 3% increase for BNB despite the general market cooling.
- Spot trading volume on PancakeSwap reached $19 billion in the last 24 hours as traders attempt to capitalize on the latest wave of hype; Chinese-language memecoins that, in some cases, have already exploded to valuations in excess of $350 million.
- The shift in momentum toward BNB Chain versus Solana began after the emergence of Aster, a decentralized perpetual exchange that has consistently surpassed $100 billion in daily volume despite complaints about trade flow disparities.
- The total value locked (TVL) on BNB Chain has increased from $6.5 billion to $9 billion since June, although it remains well below its record of $26.3 billion set in 2021, suggesting that the ecosystem has more room to grow.
- Much of the network’s growth will also depend on the direction of the broader crypto market; BTC and ETH both gave up gains on Wednesday as the market begins to consolidate after another failed breakout.
- A downward move would likely weigh on BNB Chain, as crypto traders often downplay risks by turning to stablecoins, thereby reducing demand for speculative memeco.
Positioning of derivative products
- Most major tokens saw a decline in futures open interest (OI) over the past 24 hours, with AVAX being a notable exception, posting a 2% rise in OI.
- This broad-based decline suggests that recent price action is largely due to profit-taking rather than an increase in bearish positions.
- Perpetual funding rates remain stable at or below 10% annualized, reflecting slight bullish sentiment in the market.
- On the CME, Ether futures open interest decreased to 2.16 million ETH from Monday’s high of 2.34 million. Despite this decline, the overall positioning remains relatively high, especially when compared to bitcoin’s open interest price, which is still well below its December 2024 high.
- BTC and ETH futures premiums on the CME continue to trade below 10%.
- On Deribit, the Bitcoin options market has a slightly negative skew across all durations, indicating that puts are slightly more expensive than calls. Block trades primarily feature Bitcoin bull call spreads and outright out-of-the-money Ether buy spreads.
Market movements
- BTC is up 0.45% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $122,564.51 (24 hours: -1.36%)
- ETH is down 0.62% at $4,484.06 (24 hours: -4.42%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 0.22% at 4,228.30 (24h: -3.15%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 4 Basis Points to 2.89%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0091% (9.9645% annualized) on KuCoin
- The DXY is up 0.38% at 98.95
- Gold futures are up 1.43% at $4,061.80
- Silver futures are up 2.51% at $48.71
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 0.45% at 47,734.99
- Hang Seng closed 0.48% lower at 26,829.46
- The FTSE is up 0.54% at 9,535.15
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.39% at 5,635.69
- DJIA closed Tuesday down 0.2% at 46,602.98
- The S&P 500 closed down 0.38% at 6,714.59
- The Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.67% at 22,788.36
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 0.59% at 30,351.72
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.3% at 2,839.90
- The 10-year US Treasury yield is down 1.6 bps to 4.111%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.15% at 6,771.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.21% at 25,091.00
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.16% at 46,925.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.11% (0.19%)
- Ether/bitcoin ratio: 0.03658 (-0.22%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,011 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $51.52
- Total fees: 4.04 BTC / $498,734
- Open Interest on CME Futures: 145,005 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 30.5 ounces
- BTC vs. gold market capitalization: 8.62%
Technical analysis
- The chart above shows the monthly performance of CAKE, PancakeSwap’s native utility and governance token, in candlestick format.
- Even though CAKE has surged more than 70% this month, prices remain stuck in a three-year consolidation channel.
- Prolonged periods of distance play are often resolved with violent movement in either direction. Be wary of a bullish breakout, as this could lead to a strong rally.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Tuesday at $375.78 (-2.67%), +0.62% to $378.10 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $148.72 (+0.14%), +1.14% at $150.41
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $39.58 (+1.91%), +3.61% at $41.01
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $65.1 (-5.36%), +1.01% at $65.76
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $20.25 (-1.56%), +0.69% to $20.39
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $21.47 (-0.42%), +1.30% to $21.75
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.1 (-4.52%), +0.88% to $17.25
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $17.96 (+3.04%), +3.17% at $18.53
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $53.38 (+2.08%), +1.12% at $53.98
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $29.71 (-6.28%)
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $328.4 (-8.7%), +1.98% to $334.89
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $28.36 (-7.77%), +1.09% to $28.67
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $17.77 (-7.64%), +0.62% to $17.88
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $7.05 (-8.44%), +0.85% at $7.11
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.45 (-5.77%), +2.45% at $
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flow: $875.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $62.09 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.35 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flow: $420.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $15.03 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.79 million
Source: Farside Investors
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