Silent descent marks Pakistan’s transformation from water-stressed country to one on the brink of water scarcity
Experts fear that Pakistan’s land is drying up as the country’s per capita water availability has fallen from around 5,000 cubic meters at the time of independence to less than 1,000 today. This silent descent marks the transition from a water-stressed country to a water-scarce country, where the incessant thirst for groundwater exceeds nature’s capacity to restore it.
The warning came during a seminar titled “Pakistan’s Groundwater Crisis: Policy Lessons and Framework for Sustainable Resource Use.” The seminar was organized by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) in collaboration with the RASTA initiative of the Planning Commission.
The session featured Nazam Maqbool, Social Scientist and Project Manager at RASTA, as the keynote speaker, and was moderated by Dr. Muhammad Faisal Ali, Research Fellow at PIDE.
Dr Faisal Ali highlighted Pakistan’s rapid and troubling shift from a water-stressed country to a water-scarce country. “Per capita water availability has fallen from more than 5,000 cubic meters in 1947 to less than 1,000 today,” he said. “While public debate often focuses on surface water and climate change, groundwater depletion – Pakistan’s silent lifeline – remains dangerously neglected. »
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He warned that water forms the foundation of civilization and food security, and its mismanagement threatens both human and economic survival.
In his presentation, Maqbool described Pakistan as one of the driest countries in the world, receiving only 494 millimeters of precipitation per year. “The Indus river system provides almost 96 percent of our total water supply, of which 78 percent comes from outside Pakistan’s borders,” he noted.
He pointed out that Pakistan has the fourth largest aquifer in the world and is also the fourth largest user of groundwater in the world. The Indus Plain alone stores nearly 400 million acre-feet of fresh water, about eighty times the combined capacity of all major dams. Yet the country extracts about 65 cubic kilometers of groundwater per year, which far exceeds its natural recharge rate of 55 cubic kilometers.
Tracing the evolution of groundwater use, Maqbool explained that the construction of canals between 1870 and 1930 under colonial rule had caused widespread waterlogging and salinity. To counter this, the Salinity Control and Recovery Project of the 1960s led to the installation of thousands of tube wells.
“What started as a rehabilitation effort has now turned into overexploitation,” he observed. “Electricity subsidies and drought-related policies have encouraged unregulated drilling – now exceeding 1.5 million wells across the country. »
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The consequences are disastrous. According to Maqbool, 70 percent of the urban population and more than 80 percent of the rural population rely on unsafe drinking water sources, exposing nearly 60 million people to arsenic contamination.
More than 4.5 million hectares of land have been affected by salinity and waterlogging, particularly in Punjab and Sindh, while industrial and agricultural pollutants continue to degrade water quality.
“Pakistan now ranks second in the world in terms of groundwater stress in the Indus Basin,” he said. “Lahore alone loses a meter of groundwater every year.” Addressing governance failures, he identified the absence of a binding national groundwater law, overlapping institutional mandates, weak provincial coordination after the 18th Amendment, and chronic underfunding of public services as key obstacles.
“Our current water pricing structure encourages excessive pumping,” he noted, pointing out that only 24 percent of operational costs are recovered, while the price of water in Punjab – $0.12 per cubic meter – remains well below the global average of $2.36.
To overcome these challenges, Maqbool proposed a seven-pillar framework for sustainable groundwater management. His plan includes the creation of a National Groundwater Council to coordinate provincial policies, the introduction of permitting and metering systems, comprehensive aquifer mapping, real-time data portals and integrated water management.
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He called for a shift in agriculture from water-intensive crops like sugarcane and rice to less demanding, high-yielding alternatives like pulses and oilseeds. He also advocated promoting drip and sprinkler irrigation systems and replacing general subsidies with performance-based incentives.
Citing international examples, he noted that Israel meets 25 percent of its water demand by reusing 90 percent of treated wastewater, while U.S. cities like St. Paul and Duluth have cut their water consumption in half through effective reforms.
“Pakistan must reform its pricing system, strengthen cross-border cooperation within the Indus Basin and invest in human capital through education, training and awareness,” he urged.
Concluding his speech, Maqbool emphasized, “Pakistan’s groundwater crisis cannot be solved in isolation. It requires systemic reform – in governance, science, technology and behavior. The government must act now to monitor, recharge and manage groundwater sustainably to secure our nation’s future.
Summarizing the discussion, Dr Faisal Ali stressed that water governance must be seen not only as a resource issue but also as a pillar of national stability and security. “Pakistan’s future depends on how we manage the water beneath our feet,” he said.
