Hello, Asia. Here’s what’s making news on the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of the top news stories during U.S. business hours and insight into market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of US markets, see Crypto Daybook Americas from CoinDesk.
Cryptocurrency markets enter the “Year of the Horse” looking less like a victory parade and more like a racehorse at the starting gate: muscles tense after a long stumble.
The ETH vs. BTC chart, in particular, is attracting attention because it is starting to resemble the same stride pattern seen before the last big crypto bull run.
The last time gold peaked, the following happened:
– $ETH reached its lowest level 9 months ago.
– $ETH crashed by 30-40%.This time;
– $ETH hit rock bottom 9 months ago
– $ETH is already down 31%.What happened after that?
An increase of 300%+ against #Bitcoin for Ethereum and the bull market… pic.twitter.com/CH8SRjyZm7
– Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) February 1, 2026
The Year of the Horse metaphor is less about destiny and more about tempo. In market folklore, horse years are associated with speed, abrupt changes in direction, and momentum that builds quickly once it gets going. Applied to crypto, this translates to the expectation of sharper swings, faster capital turnover, and the possibility of leadership shifting away from pure Bitcoin dominance toward higher beta assets if liquidity conditions stabilize.
The reason the ETH vs. BTC chart is being noticed is due to a sequence that happened once before and now appears to be repeating itself.
During the last major cycle, ETH bottomed against bitcoin about 9 months before gold hit its peak, then suffered another sharp relative decline of 30-40%, which convinced many people that trading was halted.
Instead, this latest stumble marked rock bottom. As gold cooled and defensive positioning unraveled, capital returned to higher beta crypto, sending Ethereum more than 300% higher versus bitcoin and helping spark the broader bull market.
Today the structure seems familiar rather than identical. The ETH/BTC chart reached a relative low about 9 months before gold’s recent high and is already down about 31%, putting it in the same historical decline range that preceded a violent reversal to the upside.
QCP said traders are still buying protection against further declines, but not with the same urgency seen during last year’s sharp sell-off, suggesting caution rather than outright panic.
Meanwhile, JP Morgan Private Bank’s Yuxuan Tang wrote in an email note that gold’s long-term fundamentals remain intact despite recent pullbacks, arguing that demand from central banks and institutions continues to provide a structural floor.
This back-and-forth between resilient safe-haven demand and washed-out crypto positioning is what gives the ETH-BTC ratio its intrigue. In terms of horse-years, the market is not yet sprinting, but it may no longer be limping.
However, the ratio is more of a temper gauge than a prediction, suggesting that if liquidity stabilizes and Bitcoin’s dominance eases, capital turnover could accelerate quickly. Horses usually don’t walk when they finally move. They gallop.
And this gallop, at least according to market forecasts, looks more like an increase in current levels than a new record. Punters on Kalshi claim bitcoin will hit $105,000 in 2026, while on Polymarket punters assign just a 29% chance of it surpassing the magic number of $126,000.
Hopefully this horse can finish the race.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin is trading near $78,800 as a brief sell-off rally runs into thin support above $70,000, leaving markets focused on the long-term holder of $60,000 to $65,000 and the 200-week mid zone as the next major bottom unless U.S. stocks turn around.
ETFs: Ethereum is trading near $2,345 after a brief rebound from weekend sales, but with weekly losses larger than Bitcoin and weaker structural support, markets remain cautious that prices could continue to fall unless risk appetite improves.
Gold: Gold is trading near $4,830 as prices attempt to stabilize after a margin-driven sell-off, but high volatility and a firmer dollar are keeping the rebound fragile rather than signaling a clear return to the previous uptrend.
Nikkei 225: The Nikkei 225 rose about 2.4% to lead gains in Asia as optimism over a new U.S.-India trade deal boosted risk-off sentiment in the region, South Korea’s Kospi jumped more than 5% and broader markets tracked a rebound in U.S. stocks despite continued volatility in gold, silver and crypto.
Elsewhere in crypto
- CZ pushes back on Binance “FUD” as blame game for crypto crash persists (CoinDesk)
- Jeffrey Epstein was an early investor in Coinbase, emails reveal (decrypt)
