The year 2025 is coming to a close with few stories in the crypto market more dramatic than the “flash crash” of October 10, when Bitcoin plunged $12,000, or almost 10%, in just a few minutes. The collapse triggered more than $19 billion in liquidations in just 24 hours, followed by a “cascading warning” broadcast by traders and a staggering $500 billion erased from the entire crypto market cap.
This set the stage for a long slide that saw the largest cryptocurrency fall more than 30% below the peak value of $126,223 set six days earlier. This painful decline is likely to cause it to record the first full annual loss since the crypto winter of 2022.
The year began on a more optimistic note, with Bitcoin price predictions ranging from dreamlike fantasies to more conservative goals that, at times, seemed within reach. Then everything changed after the crash of October 10. Many predictions, from seasoned analysts to outspoken evangelists, shared one thing in common: They have not aged well.
Let’s leave aside the long-term predictions that have climbed to $1 billion by 2038 by Jurrien Timmer, global head of macro at Fidelity, or the undated $700,000 if institutional adoption reaches the scale of BlackRock CEO Larry Fink. Even the most conservative estimates now appear somewhat exaggerated.
Some predictions weren’t just optimistic; they were explosive.
Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin technology company Jan3, predicted in February that bitcoin would hit $1 million by the end of 2025 as part of a “violent” bullish move fueled by the collapse of fiat currencies.
He received support from Blockstream CEO and founder Adam Back, arguably one of the most respected figures in Bitcoin, who in April also reportedly said he believed BTC could reach $500,000 to $1 million by the end of 2025. His bullish thesis was driven by ETF inflows, institutional buying, and limited supply.
He wasn’t the only one. Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya also projects $500,000 by October.
Even some of the most conservative estimates for the year-end price target have exceeded the all-time high.
Among them were JPMorgan analysts who in early October, before the crash, had raised their year-end forecast to $165,000, basing it on a growing adoption of “dump trading,” a surge in investor demand for alternative stores of value.
Even after the crash, Michael Saylor, executive chairman of treasury firm Bitcoin Strategy (MSTR), helped keep bulls’ hopes alive with his Oct. 28 “expectation” that BTC would reach “around $150,000 by the end of this year.” Strategy, the holder of the most bitcoin among publicly traded companies, purchased an additional $1 billion worth of BTC on Dec. 15, bringing its total holdings to 671,268.
Of course, they weren’t alone. Throughout 2025, a flood of price predictions has flooded across the crypto landscape, most of which only serve as a reminder of how difficult forecasting can be.
VanEck’s digital asset research team predicted a peak of $180,000 for the first quarter, more than $50,000 higher than the actual high. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan had said BTC would hit $200,000 in 2025, supported by what he called “the most bullish setup in years.”
Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors reiterated his forecast of $200,000 to $250,000 through October. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, said he was “sticking” to a similar range until November.
The humiliating truth
Only a handful adjusted their expectations downward over time.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, once a $500,000 prophet, was one of the few to call this out publicly, saying in October that BTC would likely end the year between $120,000 and $125,000. Standard Chartered followed suit in December, reducing its target from $200,000 to $100,000.
Ultimately, 2025 reminded the market of an old truth: Bitcoin humiliates everyone. It ignores patterns, breaks charts, and ignores even the boldest calls. Some missed a few centimeters. Others missed miles. But almost everyone missed it.
As the dust settles, the industry is once again left with charts to redraw, narratives to rewrite, and one undeniable takeaway: In crypto, predictions are easy to make. Being right is rare.
