The United States long -standing strategic bet on India has failed to deliver, and Washington must now reconsider its Southern Asian policy by investing in a balanced partnership with Pakistan – which could help stabilize the region and even bring the United States and China closer – money the former Pakistani national advisor Dr Mooed Yusuf.
In the play entitled “Why America should bet on Pakistan” published in the prestigious Foreign Foreign magazine, Dr. Yusuf maintains that the United States has poorly read the regional dynamics by overestimating the strategic value of India and underestimating the ability of Pakistan to act as a power of balance. He urges Washington to correct courses, warning that continuing the risks of New Delhi’s risks risks instability in an already volatile region.
“The American bet on India has not borne fruit. Instead of becoming an unshakable partner to counterbalance China, India has pursued an independent and often divergent foreign policy, “wrote Yusuf. “Meanwhile, Pakistan, despite its economic and security challenges, remains a critical regional player who could help the United States recalibrate its approach to South Asia.”
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He noted that despite heavy American investments – ranging from civilian nuclear transactions to renunciations for Russian weapons purchases – India continues to resist alignment fully with American interests.
“Washington has courted in New Delhi with major economic, defense and technological agreements while emphasizing the fact that it is in the American interests of national security to facilitate the emergence of India as what American officials call a” net security supplier “in the wider region of the Indian Ocean,” wrote Yusuf.
Citing India’s neutral position on Ukraine’s invasion by Russia and its growing ties with Moscow and Beijing, Dr. Moeed Yusuf noted that Modi government’s foreign policy is more motivated by a desire for “strategic autonomy” than to raise concerns between tanks.
“Despite all these efforts, American decision -makers should be alarmed by the results … For example, India has taken an almost neutral position on the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 in Russia and participated in the efforts of certain non -Western countries to detach from the American trade. These differences are not accidental;
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Yusuf, which was the NSA from 2021 to 2022, identifies three defective hypotheses which have defined American policy towards the region in the past two decades: the belief that India would unconditionally increase as counterweight to China; that Pakistan would naturally align with Beijing; And that Pakistan, because of its file in Afghanistan, was an unreliable long -term partner.
He maintains that these hypotheses have led Washington to isolate Pakistan and to allow an aggressive posture of India in the region. This included limiting military cooperation with Pakistan, pointing economic support and allowing India to frame bilateral tensions as internal questions beyond American concern.
Yusuf noted that Washington’s decisions aligned itself perfectly with India’s objective to keep Pakistan weak and isolated. This embraces New Delhi to adopt a more muscular position, degenerating military strikes in the Pakistani territory and deepening the regional fracture.
According to Yusuf, the increasingly assertive actions of India – including targeted strikes inside Pakistan and an increasing rhetoric of hostility – have only intensified the inclination of Islamabad to Beijing. Pakistan, he underlines, is now obtaining 80% of its new weapons from China, a dramatic change compared to its formerly dependent soldiers.
Despite the deterioration of links with the United States in recent years, Yusuf highlights a change in the posture of Washington under President Donald Trump, who has made openings to the military leadership of Islamabad and negotiated a temporary cease-fire between India and Pakistan in 2025.
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This thaw, says Yusuf, reflects an increasing achievement in Washington that his policy in India has a limited utility. He maintains that Pakistan could help create a regional balance – not just between India and Pakistan – but also to facilitate a more constructive American -Chinese dynamic.
Yusuf wrote that the history of Pakistan as a bridge between Washington and Beijing – especially during the secret visit of Henry Kissinger in 1971 – he can again play the “role of the regional fixer”.
He notes that the national security policy of Pakistan in 2022 explicitly rejects the policy of the geopolitical block and promotes economic connectivity and regional cooperation. This vision, says Yusuf, is aligned with American interests to promote stability, open trade and efforts to combat terrorism.
The former NSA points out that Pakistan does not want to choose between China and the United States – and it should not be forced either.
“Pakistan’s economy depends on the two powers. Trying to keep it away from China would turn around. Instead, Washington should work with Islamabad to create a pragmatic coexistence environment,” he said.
He proposes that the United States could reduce tensions on China’s investments in Pakistan – in particular the Chinese -Pakistani Economic Corridor (CPEC) – by launching parallel or complementary infrastructure projects in the region. Yusuf suggests that investments shared in regional connectivity could transform Pakistan into a commercial crossroads that benefits us, Chinese and even Indian interests.
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In addition, cooperation in fields such as the fight against terrorism and the extraction of resources – in particular in critical mineral areas such as Reko Diq – the possibilities of collaboration which serve both American strategic objectives and the development needs of Pakistan.
Yusuf warns that a continuous American inclination to India could exacerbate the risk of a large -scale war in South Asia, especially since India remains fixed on its rivalry with Pakistan. He stresses that New Delhi’s confrontation policies have distracted him from his strategic competition with China and could excite his military capacities, in particular in the face of a potential two -front conflict.
He also underlines that improving relations with Pakistan could open doors to India to extend its access to Afghanistan and Central Asia – advantages that are currently lost due to a hostile position.
Yusuf has warned that the United States does not encourage India -Pakistan dialogue to resolve long -standing disputes – from terrorism to cashmere with water sharing – the region will remain locked in a dangerous cycle.
While the United States seeks to adapt to a multipolar world, Yusuf calls for a “realistic reset” in its South Asian strategy – which does not deal with India as the only partner and recognizes the essential role of Pakistan to ensure regional peace.
“Only a balanced American approach – based on pragmatism and shared interests – can ensure long -term stability in Southern Asia and protect American influence in the region,” he concluded, warning that the risks of continuous policy centered on Washington India not only alienated Pakistan, but losing its strategic policy in South Asia.
