Iranian crude oil has continued to flow through the Strait of Hormuz at a near-normal pace, even as attacks on Tehran-linked ships in the narrow waterway have decimated exports from other Gulf countries, a Reuters Examination of tanker tracking data showed.
Iran has exported about 13.7 million barrels of crude oil since Israel and the United States launched attacks on the country on Feb. 28, according to an analysis by TankerTrackers.com, a maritime intelligence firm that specializes in tracking the Shadow Fleet, a network of ships used to transport oil and gas from countries under Western sanctions.
Ship tracking service Kpler pegged Iranian exports at an even higher level in the first 11 days of March, at around 16.5 million barrels.
Iran’s retaliation for Israeli and U.S. attacks has included strikes on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and energy infrastructure across the Middle East, bringing non-Iranian ship transits through the main gateway for much of the Middle East’s oil exports to a virtual halt and forcing the region’s producers to cut production.
Iran’s ability to continue exporting oil without any reported interceptions stands in stark contrast to what happened during the U.S. military campaign in Venezuela, which involved a naval blockade of the Latin American nation and the seizure of ships attempting to enter or exit Venezuelan waters.
“I am surprised, given its successful seizures of Venezuela-linked vessels last December, that the United States did not launch a similar campaign before the outbreak of this conflict, or has not done so now,” said David Tannenbaum, director of consultancy Blackstone Compliance Services.
However, U.S. efforts to stop Iran-linked tankers could trigger more attacks on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, said Next Barrel oil and shipping analyst Matias Togni.
As long as Iran moves its ships through the region, Iran has an incentive to keep the Strait of Hormuz open at least to some extent, said James Lightbourn, a shipping financier and founder of Cavalier Shipping, a maritime investment and consulting firm.
“If the United States seized tankers, Iran would have less to lose by completely closing the strait (for example with mines),” Lightbourn said.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on whether Washington was considering action against Iranian oil exports.
Iranian exports at similar pace to last year
Data from TankerTracker.com and Kpler indicate that Iranian crude oil exports ranged between 1.1 million barrels per day and 1.5 million barrels per day from February 28 to March 11.
The country’s average exports last year were 1.69 million bpd, according to Kpler records.
The pace could accelerate in the days to come. Several very large crude carriers, the largest oil ships in operation, are still loading oil at the export hub of Iran’s Kharg island, according to satellite images reviewed by TankerTrackers.com.
Before the Feb. 28 strikes, Iran had increased its exports to about 2.17 million bpd in February in anticipation of Israeli-US military action, according to Kpler data. Iran’s record oil exports were around 3.79 million bpd in the week of February 16, the data showed.
Six tankers have left Iran since February 28, including the U.S.-sanctioned ship Cuma, which set sail this week, according to an analysis by Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Two liquefied petroleum gas tankers, also under US sanctions, left Iran on Friday after loading cargoes, Reuters reported earlier.
At least 11 million barrels of crude oil were shipped from Iran, and four supertankers that left Iran carrying 8 million barrels arrived in waters around Singapore, a separate analysis showed.
The ships follow the same navigation pattern in Iran’s exclusive economic zone, which extends up to 24 nautical miles and beyond local territorial limits of 12 nautical miles.
This is seen as providing the ships some protection by keeping them in Iranian waters, maritime sources said.
