Bitcoin investors, it’s time to buckle down.
Elliott Wave analyst and Ledn chief investment officer Jon Glover, known for his accurate market forecasts, is bucking the bullish consensus with a stark warning: The Bitcoin bull market that began in early 2023 appears to be over after a recent drop from $126,000 to $104,000.
Glover is now forecasting a sustained bear market that could push prices down to $70,000 or lower, a potential decline of more than 35% from the current market rate of around $108,000.
“I strongly believe that we have completed the five-wave upward move and are now entering a bear market that could last at least until the end of 2026,” Glover said. “I expect bitcoin to trade between $70,000 and $80,000, and maybe even lower.”
Glover explained that while the possibility of Bitcoin retesting its record highs around $124,000 or climbing slightly higher cannot be ruled out, the broader trend has now turned bearish, meaning prices will likely be lower in a few months.
Elliott Wave Theory
Introduced by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1938, Elliott Wave Theory is based on the idea that the collective psychology of investors moves in predictable cycles. These cycles form a five-wave structure in the direction of the main trend, with three impulse waves and two corrective waves.
Bitcoin’s five-wave uptrend began in late 2022, when prices were below $20,000, culminating with the fifth wave peaking at a record high above $126,000 earlier this month.
Initially, Wave 5 was expected to bring prices to between $140,000 and $150,000 by the end of the year. Glover made the call in early August amid growing bearish concerns following a sharp decline from $120,000 to $112,000.
While prices surged as expected, momentum stalled beyond $125,000 this month, prompting Glover to warn that repeated failure to sustain above that level would weaken the bullish scenario. Subsequently, bitcoin fell to $105,000 last week, confirming the early end of the uptrend.
“Now that we’ve fallen below $108,000, I’m ready to decide whether we’re on the orange trajectory in the chart below and therefore looking for a rise to $145,000, or whether we’re on the yellow trajectory, which would mean we’ve seen the highs in this market,” Glover said. “Here’s my call: THE BULL RUN IN BITCOIN IS OVER!”
The bearish outlook is consistent with Bitcoin’s historical trend of peaking and then entering a bear market approximately 18 months after each halving event. The most recent halving took place in April 2024.
Supporting Glover’s bearish sentiment, data from Amberdata shows that BTC’s Deribit-listed puts, offering downside protection, are trading at a premium to calls through September 2026 expiration. This suggests that some traders are preparing for downside risks that will extend into next year.
