Bitcoin fell to $86,000 when CME futures opened Sunday after the weekend break. It has since recovered slightly, although the market structure remains firmly in a downward trend.
This initial drop created a price gap of up to $89,265. A CME gap forms when the bitcoin spot price moves while CME futures contracts are closed. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to reexamine these shortcomings.
Bitcoin last hit an all-time high on October 6, 111 days ago, and is now down about 30% from that peak, reinforcing bearish momentum.
A break below $80,000 would likely result in a return to April 2025 levels, when bitcoin traded as high as $76,000 during the sell-off linked to President Donald Trump’s tariff campaign.
For now, the key level holding the market together is the 100-week moving average, which represents the average closing price over that period and is often seen as long-term structural support. Since the November 21 local bottom at $80,000, the price has consistently held at this level, which is currently near $87,145.
Bitcoin has already fallen below the 50-day moving average of just over $90,000. This indicator is commonly used to assess the direction of short-term trends.
Below current levels, several notable support zones emerge. The difficulty regression model, an estimate of the average production cost of bitcoin based on mining difficulty, comes in at nearly $89,300. Historically, commodities tend to move close to or trade below their cost of production during bear markets.
Further down, the overall cost basis for Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund buyers in the United States is $84,099, a level that has served as support for several months. Onchain data shows the average exchange withdrawal price in 2024, which is actually the cost base for 2024 buyers, at $82,713.
Finally, the actual average market price, calculated by dividing investor capitalization by active supply, sits just above $80,000, closely aligning with the November low and reinforcing its importance as a potential mean reversion level.
