Lighter’s LIT token has yet to begin trading, but the market has already drawn a clear line around its valuation following Tuesday’s airdrop.
Traders are divided on whether the Ethereum-based decentralized layer 2 exchange (DEX)’s new governance token deserves a fully diluted valuation closer to $2 billion or $3 billion.
Fully diluted valuation, or FDV, estimates the total market value of a token by multiplying its price by the maximum possible supply if all tokens were issued and circulating.
According to CoinMarketCap, pre-market trading has placed LIT near $3.20, implying an FDV above $3 billion, while prediction markets tell a more cautious story.
Recent low-float launches like Monad, EigenLayer, and Movement have inflated overall valuations into the billions, even though most tokens remain locked, leaving FDV to act less as an indicator of real demand and more as a forward-looking estimate that can be easily distorted without careful attention to liquidity and tokenomics.
On Polymarket, traders see roughly equal chances of LIT surpassing a fully diluted valuation of $3 billion a day after launch, while earnings expectations of $4 billion and $6 billion have faded, with market data showing those higher price targets collapsed after the October crash.
In comparison, Hyperliquid’s HYPE token debuted at an FDV price of around $4.2 billion last November.
Data from Dune shows that Lighter generated an average of around $2.7 billion in daily perpetual volume over the past week, placing it behind Hyperliquid and Aster.
