If someone told you that stock market investors unload their darling assets, you will most likely interpret it as a sign of an imminent slowdown in the market.
The story differs, however, in the cryptography market, where such a sale indicates optimization, according to analysts observing the historical trends in the offer held by long -term investors or portfolios holding parts for at least 155 days or more of five months.
“Based on our analysis, the net reduction in the long -term supply of the support (purple line) frequently coincided with strong rallies of bitcoin (white line), as seen in the Q1 and Q4 of 2024. As long as long -term holders continue to reduce their sales, Bitcoin remains at risk of short upward pressure, “said Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, in a shared report with Coindesk.
The total offer held by these portfolios fell to around 13 million BTC. According to the Glassnode analysis company, more than a million BTC changed hands during the recent price increase of more than $ 100,000, short -term merchants increased the distribution of long -term holders.
“During the recent rally greater than $ 100,000, 1.1 million BTCs were transferred long -term holders to short -term holders, representing an impressive influx of demand to absorb this offer at prices greater than $ 90,000 “Said Glassnode in his weekly report.
Note, however, that the rhythm to which long -term holders sell have slowed down. This slowdown is obvious from the monthly variation rate of the short -term short -term supply ratio. It is no longer as harmful as sooner this month, indicating a more measured approach to the sale by long-term holders.
Exchange of slides
The number of BTCs held in portfolios linked to centralized exchanges decreased to 2.7 million BTC, against more than three million about six months ago, according to Glassnode.
The Exodus of BTC of exchanges, which leads to a reduced availability of parts for fast sales, is largely considered as a bull. The dynamics, however, have changed since the beginning of ETF Spot in the United States a year ago.
“While many interpret this as a form of supply shock caused by a mass of parts of parts withdrawn by individual investors – potentially creating upward pressure – we think that the majority of this decline comes from coins in ETF wallets managed by guards like Coinbase, “said Glassnode.
In other words, these parts found themselves in an ETF, another liquid or active investment vehicle and can be purchased and sold as quickly as the real parts.
According to Glassnode, the adjusted exchange balance for parts that have been moved to alternative vehicles are greater than 3 million BTC.
