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March Madness brackets are invading homes across America, but with the expanded legalization of sports gambling, more and more bets are being placed on tournament games.
The tournament is the only one that can rival the Super Bowl in terms of gambling, with 32 games played on the field and each of them watched by millions of people across the country.
Picking out the upsets in brackets is stressful enough — you know they’re going to happen, you just don’t know which ones. But picking them all at a sportsbook could actually be beneficial.
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General view of the second round of the 2025 NCAA men’s basketball tournament between the New Mexico Lobos and the Michigan State Spartans at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse on March 23, 2025, in Cleveland, Ohio. (Jason Mowry/Getty Images)
Since 2008, 12 seeds are 28-40 against No. 5 seeds – that .410 winning percentage certainly isn’t bad for teams that are normally double-digit underdogs. Combine that with No. 11 seeds at near .500 (37-39) first-round odds since 2006, and bettors might have cashed in, even if their brackets were broken.
“That’s where you take pictures and that’s where, you know, the upsets happened,” Johnny Avello, a bettor at DraftKings, told PK Press Club Digital in a recent interview.
Since 2019, 10 seeds are also 10-13 against 7 seeds, with a 7 seed advancing due to COVID-19 in 2021. In the last nine tournaments dating back to 2016, No. 9 seeds are 22-14 against No. 8 seeds, with the No. 8 team winning the majority of games only twice during this period.
Five players have been suspended this offseason for gambling, and a sixth is on the way. (Budrul Chukrut/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
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Because of these trends, Avello has seen several lower seeds narrow their point spreads, including No. 11 South Florida against No. 6 Louisville (7 to 5 point underdogs) and No. 12 High Point against No. 5 Wisconsin (12.5 to 9.5). No. 12 Akron also went from being a 9.5-point underdog to 7.5 against No. 5 Texas Tech.
Now, while some may want to go big or go home with seeds Nos. 13-16 (kudos to those who bet on UMBC in 2018 and Fairleigh Dickinson in 2023), that may not be wise. In fact, Avello said many bettors favor the favorites in these matchups.
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Avello opened No. 2 Purdue (which lost to the aforementioned FDU) as a 23-point favorite against Queens, but that spread now stands at 25. No. 2 Iowa State went from 23.5 to 25.5 point favorites against No. 15 Tennessee State, while No. 3 Gonzaga also saw its spread against Kennesaw State increase from 18.5 to 25.5 points. 20.5.
Texas Tech remains the smallest five-seed favorite, but Vanderbilt and St. John’s sit at -11.5 against McNeese State and Northern Iowa, respectively. For context, the biggest gap in a 5-12 game last year was Clemson’s 7.5 against McNeese, who pulled off the upset. Two other five seeds sat at -2.5.
A general view of the March Madness logo on center court at the Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena. (Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports)
And for what it’s worth, two No. 13 seeds were single-digit favorites last year, but this year they’re all favored to win by double digits.
