A few more hours away, Bitcoin is on pace to record its worst losing streak since 2018, with February on track to mark a fifth consecutive monthly decline.
The streak of losses would be the longest since the 2018-2019 bear market and follows what has already been Bitcoin’s worst 50-day start to the year on record, leaving BTC down more than 25% year-to-date and on track for its first-ever back-to-back declines in January and February.
More? The bitcoin/gold ratio fell to 12.288 ounces in February, a 70% decline over the past 14 months.
Bitcoin is also on pace to close out its worst month since June 2022, with the collapse of Terra-Luna that year sending the price down by around a third. With bitcoin currently at around $66,000, this February’s decline amounts to more than 16%.
But some analysts say comparing the current period to 2018 could be an oversimplification of what is happening.
Repricing as part of a structural regime change
“What we’re seeing is not just weakness. It’s a revaluation as part of a structural regime shift,” Mati Greenspan, eToro’s senior market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, told CoinDesk.
He believes that while tariffs, ETF flows and macroeconomic fears may explain the timing of the sell-off, they do not explain the deeper move, which he sees as a broader recalibration of how markets price risky assets in an era of high uncertainty.
Bitcoin is also approaching a fifth consecutive weekly decline, a streak last seen between March and May 2022.
Geopolitical tensions have strengthened the U.S. dollar and crude oil prices, tightening financial conditions and weighing on risk assets.
However, this slowdown stands out for another reason: the uneven relationship between bitcoin and stocks. While US stocks have remained relatively resilient, BTC has significantly underperformed, marking an unusual period of instability in its traditional correlation between assets and risks.
Confront the arguments
“Bitcoin doesn’t have a narrative at the moment, and it’s being squeezed on both sides,” Jonatan Randin, senior market analyst at PrimeXBT, said in an email to CoinDesk.
Randin pointed to growing macroeconomic pressure, including $3.8 billion in ETF outflows over the past five weeks, escalating tariff tensions and a Federal Reserve that has yet to signal imminent rate cuts.
While gold has attracted safe-haven flows and stocks have benefited from AI momentum, bitcoin has been a laggard. “Gold is up about 48% since September, while bitcoin is down about 41% over the same period,” Randin said, explaining that the divergence shows that investors are still treating BTC as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than digital gold.
The correlation picture has been volatile. “The 20-day BTC-Nasdaq correlation increased from -0.68 to +0.72 between early and mid-February. This is not decorrelation, it is instability,” Randin said. “When the risk trade works and an asset is left behind, it’s usually a weakness, not a strength.”
The narrative “has not changed since 2009. This is a global, neutral alternative to debt-based fiduciary systems,” according to Greenspan.
The decorrelations are not random
“When correlations break down during a regime change, it’s usually not random. It’s an early reassessment,” Greenspan said. “If stocks are still treated as an exposure to cyclical growth while bitcoin begins to trade more like a sovereign hedge, this divergence is structurally bullish.”
Despite the magnitude of the decline, Randin cautioned against assuming the correction is over.
“Bitcoin is now down 52% from October highs,” he said. “That sounds like a lot, but looking at past bear markets, where we saw declines of 80% or more, we might realistically only be halfway through this correction.”
He added that although the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell to its lowest level in Bitcoin history and accumulator addresses absorbed approximately 372,000 BTC since late December, signals often associated with cycle lows, similar conditions in past downturns were followed by another 30-40% decline before a definitive low formed.
Greenspan said, however, that sentiment may already reflect much of the pessimism. “When sentiment becomes uniformly negative while long-term fundamentals remain intact, reversals tend to be sharp,” he said.
Until Bitcoin can reclaim the $68,000-$72,000 area, Randin said, “I would expect this streak to continue rather than break cleanly.” He identified $60,000 as a key near-term support level, with the 200-week moving average near $58,500 just below.
“The losing streak narrative focuses on five months,” Greenspan added. “The structural history spans decades. »
