The SEC finally cleared the way for altcoin ETFs to accelerate, but a government shutdown could keep applications for a The ETF has been in limbo until 2026 – and punters on Polymarket are undervaluing that.
After abandoning 19b-4 filings and approving “generic listing standards” to fast-track altcoin ETFs, traders are betting there is a 90% chance that ADA approval of ETFs will arrive by the end of 2025.
But with a 36 percent chance the government will be shut down for a month, that 10 percent “no” vote could prove to be the smarter play, because even “absurdly rapid” approvals can’t happen when the lights are off.
According to the SEC’s contingency plan, only about 390 of its 4,200 employees remain on duty, focused entirely on emergencies and market surveillance rather than approving new products.
ETF issuers can still submit filings through the EDGAR system, the contingency plan says, but no staff is available to review, comment on or expedite them. While all IPO reviews have already been halted, the same hold now threatens to stall the wave of altcoin ETFs that were expected to advance under the SEC’s new accelerated listing framework introduced in September.
An analysis of government shutdown-related contracts shows Polymarket bettors expect federal operations to resume around late October or early November, with the consensus date being around October 30.
For the SEC, this delay means at least three more weeks without staff being needed to review filings or advance pending crypto ETFs like Cardano’s, and there are 89 other crypto ETF applications also on file, plus the usual assortment of approvals needed for traditional financial products.
Even if the agency reopens by then, it will only have about eight weeks of work left before the Christmas slowdown, with Thanksgiving narrowing that window even further.
In extended contracts, Polymarket traders now assign around a 31% chance that the shutdown will extend into November, closing in on the 35-day record set in 2018-2019.
A time frame of this length would leave the SEC even less time to clear a growing backlog that already includes halted IPO reviews, delayed enforcement cases, and newly streamlined but still pending crypto ETF filings.
There is certainly a chance that the ADA ETF will be approved by the end of the year. It’s impossible to say where this falls on the list of considerations before agency staff, but it would be fair to say it’s at the top of the list.
At the same time, given the gridlock in Washington reflected in Polymarket’s odds, it’s also possible that this could drag on.
So there is an 11% chance that the ADA ETF will not be approved in 2025? It may not be 100%, but the odds of a delay are clearly higher than the market suggests.
