Bitcoin Once again, it failed to break out of its month-long trading range over the weekend, selling below the key resistance level at $74,000 to recently trade at $70,600.
Ether (ETH) and the altcoin market followed suit, with ETH falling from the April 11 high of $2,320 to $2,190. This remains little changed since midnight UTC.
The selloff came as Brent crude oil rose back above $100 a barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran has been a direct driver of risk asset price action over the past month, with US stocks and crypto inversely correlated to oil and the US dollar.
For now, bitcoin and the broader crypto market remain in a trading range that has persisted since early February, failing to break above $75,000 on the upside while holding above $63,000 on the downside.
Positioning of derivative products
- Futures contracts linked to most major tokens, including bitcoin and ether, have declined slightly over the past 24 hours. The move indicates traders are reducing their risks after President Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a surge in oil prices.
- While oil prices jumped 5%, open interest (OI) on Binance crude futures declined by more than 1%. Activity on decentralized platform Hyperliquid picked up over the weekend, with combined OI on Brent and WTI futures surpassing $1 billion.
- Futures contracts linked to saw strong capital inflows, with open interest rates reaching their highest level since February 26. This is not necessarily bullish, as perpetual funding rates and 24-hour cumulative volume delta remain negative, suggesting that entries are largely driven by traders seeking short positioning or actively building short exposure rather than accumulating long positions.
- With the exception of HYPE, LINK, AVAX, TRX, and ZEC, all top 25 tokens experienced negative CVD, indicating that sell-side aggressiveness offsets buy-side aggressiveness across the entire market.
- A negative CVD indicates that more participants are selling by actively reaching for bids rather than buying by lifting asks.
- Options-based implied volatility metrics for Bitcoin and Ether remain low across most time frames, suggesting the market is pricing in calmer, slower price movements. The volatility curve is also quite flat, showing no strong expectation of sudden spikes in the future.
- However, downward fears persist. BTC puts are currently trading at a premium of 5 points or more across all time frames, indicating stronger demand for downside protection. ETH puts are also high, although to a significantly lesser extent than BTC.
- Block flows featured spreads and call calendar straddles, with these two strategies accounting for more than 50% of total activity over the past 24 hours, indicating investors’ preference for time decay and volatility rather than a clear directional bias.
Symbolic discussion
- The CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) and DeFi Select Index (DFX) were both in the black on Monday alongside the altcoin-dominated CoinDesk 100 (CD100), while bitcoin and indexes dominated by larger tokens lost ground following the oil price’s rise above $100 per barrel.
- DeFi token AAVE was one of the best performers, rising around 5%, followed by HYPE and JUP, which added around 2%.
- But it was memecoins that dominated Monday’s gains: BROCCOLI, BAN and 币安人生 posted gains above 10%, demonstrating investors’ appetite for highly speculative tokens in what is otherwise a very flat market.
- CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” indicator is at 36/100, higher than February’s sub-20 low, but below the 50/100 reached last month.
