Bitcoin (BTC) The shift in September is delivered with an uncomfortable reminder for traders that history is not on their side.
The largest token by market capitalization has decreased in nine from the last 14 months of September, with an average monthly loss of around 12%.
This seasonality is looming again in 2025. Bitcoin opened almost $ 110,000 for a week, its lowest level in almost two months, and the total market capitalization of crypto slipped to 3.74 billions of dollars, reaching a hollow of three weeks.
BTC prices have been stable in the past 24 hours, with Solana soil (GROUND) 4%leader, XRP Publish 1% and Ada de Cardano (ADA) 1.5%increase.
Traders say that the combination of macro uncertainty, fragile feeling and slimming volumes leaves little room for error to go to what was historically the most difficult month of the calendar.
The techniques do not inspire much confidence either. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FXPro, noted that the larger capitalization graph “continues to record a series of lower stockings, signaling a downward trend”.
He underlined the non-compliance with Bitcoin to have $ 112,000 and warned against “an additional decline towards the $ 105,000 zone”, a level that has long acted as support before the $ 100,000 psychological barrier.
The Crypto Fear index fell around 40, its lowest since April, suggesting that the nerves increase before they are completely broken.
In 2017, Bitcoin dropped by almost 8% in September despite the euphoric rally which brought it to $ 20,000 later that year. In 2019, the token lost almost 14% in September, foreshadowing months of lateral action.
Even in the last cycle, September 2021 and 2022 both saw steep prints, reminding merchants that liquidity drains and macro-filments often coincide with the end of the summer.
This year, these opposite winds are visible in FNB flows. After a regular accumulation for much of August, the FNB Bitcoin of Spot in the United States recorded net outings of $ 440 million last week.
ETHER ETF, which was launched last year, posted more than a billion dollars in entries, marking a rare light point but also a sign that capital can run rather than growing overall.
Meanwhile, cryptocurrency data shows that FNB spots have now absorbed more than 1.3 million BTCs, or almost 6% of the total supply, which puts them equally with the largest exchanges of market share.
The risk is that the support levels break before the arrival of the macro. On Friday, non -agricultural wages should display only 45,000 new jobs, confirming a slowdown in the American labor market.
A mild print would reinforce the file for a rate of September rate of the Fed, a catalyst that could return the feeling at risk. Until then, merchants are pouring for downward hedges.
The options of options show the strongest demand for food in weeks, with Sckew firmly leaning, noted Kuptsikevich of FXPro, calling for caution among the intra-day traders.
