The current state of the crypto market is playing out almost exactly as historical trends suggest, according to Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures.
That’s why he was skeptical of recent overly optimistic fundraising appeals. “When people thought the bottom would be at $80,000 and it would just be a six-week bear market, that seems ridiculous to me,” Terpin said at the Hong Kong 2026 Consensus on Thursday.
Predictions that bitcoin would bottom at $60,000 and immediately resume its rise seemed premature to him. “It also seems a little too soon.”
Although he did not forecast another one-year decline, Terpin believes the market is likely facing “one more pain point” in what he describes as a fragile environment. He suggests that Bitcoin could revisit levels around $50,000, or even $40,000, before a sustainable bottom is formed.
Halving is central to the design of bitcoin, as it halves the reward miners receive for validating transactions by approximately every four years, thereby reducing the rate at which new coins are created.
This built-in supply shock reinforces bitcoin’s scarcity, a core part of its value proposition, and has historically preceded major bull markets as reduced new supply meets stable or growing demand.
The halving mechanism slows Bitcoin’s inflation rate over time, ultimately capping the total supply at 21 million coins and solidifying its positioning as digital gold.
“We are exactly where we should be,” Terpin argued, pointing to the well-established four-year cycle anchored around Bitcoin halving events.
One of the most reliable elements of previous cycles has been the approximate timing of the bubble’s peak and subsequent unwinding, he argued.
“The bull market broke out in the fourth quarter after the halving,” he notes, adding that the speculative surge phase typically lasts between nine and 11 months. “This time it was 11 months.”
Terpin draws a close parallel with the last cycle. “The summits, the bubble that burst, took place on November 10, 2021,” he says. “The lows were right after FTX declared bankruptcy on November 10, 2022. Exactly one year to the day.”
Even the broader four-year pace showed striking consistency. A full cycle was only three days off a clean four-year interval, while the first halving cycle was only a few weeks per year in terms of peak-to-trough structure, according to Terpin.
Learn more: Crypto asset manager Bitwise says Bitcoin will break its four-year cycle in 2026
