- India, considering developing the canal on the Chenab river, allocated to Pakistan.
- Delhi weighing other projects that could reduce water flow in Pakistan.
- India has suspended participation in the Industry Water Treaty after the Kashmir attack.
India is considering plans to considerably increase the water it derives from a large river which feeds the Pakistani farms downstream, in the context of the action of reprisals for a deadly attack of April against tourists that New Delhi blame in Islamabad, according to four people familiar with the problem.
Delhi suspended his participation in the Industry Water Treaty in 1960, which governs the use of the Indian river system, shortly after 26 civilians in Indian, Jammu and Kashmir (Iiojk) was killed.
Pakistan denied its participation in the incident, but the agreement was not relaunched despite the two nuclear neighbors who accelerate on a ceasefire last week after the worst fights for them for decades.
After the attack on April 22, Indian Prime Minister Narendra modified ordered managers to accelerate planning and execution of projects on the Rivers Chenab, Jhelum and Indus, three water bodies in the industrial system which are mainly designated for the use of Pakistan, six people told Reuters.
One of the main plans under discussion consists in doubled at 120 km over the duration of the Ranbir canal on the Chenab, which crosses India to the agricultural power of Pakistan in Punjab, said two of the people. The canal was built in the 19th century, long before the signing of the treaty.
India is authorized to draw a limited quantity of water from Chenab for irrigation, but an enlarged channel – which, according to experts, could take years to build – would allow it to divert 150 cubic meters of water per second, against around 40 cubic meters currently, said the four people, citing official discussions and documents they had seen.
Details of the Deliberations of the Indian government on the expansion of Ranbir have not been reported before. The discussions began last month and continue even after the ceasefire, one of the people said.
Indian ministries responsible for water and foreign affairs, as well as the Modi office, did not respond to Reuters“Questions. The Indian hydroelectric giant NHPC, which operates numerous projects in the industrial system, has also not responded to an email asking for comments.
Modi said in a fiery speech this week that “water and blood cannot flow together”, although it has not referred to the treaty. The spokesman for the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Randir Jaiswal, told journalists on Tuesday that India “would keep the treaty in suspense until Pakistan abjure in a credible and irrevocably support for cross-border terrorism”.
The Minister of Foreign Affairs Ishaq Dar told legislators this week that the government had written in India by arguing that the suspension of the treaty was illegal and that Islamabad considered him to remain in force.
Islamabad said that after India suspended the treaty in April that it considered “any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan” as an “act of war”.
About 80% of Pakistani farms depend on the industrial system, just like almost all hydroelectric projects serving the country with some 250 million.
Any Delhi effort to build dams, channels or other infrastructures that retain or divert a large amount of industrial system flows to India “would take years to achieve,” said water safety expert David Michel, the strategic and international study center based in Washington.
But Pakistan had an overview of the type of pressure it could face India: water at a key reception point in Pakistan briefly dropped to 90% in early May after India began maintenance work on certain industrial projects.
The threatened success
The industrial system crosses some of the most tense areas geopolitically in the world, originating near Lake Mansarovar in Tibet and winding through the east of the north and Pakistan of India, before emptying in the Oman Sea.
The treaty is widely considered as one of the most successful water sharing agreements in the world, having survived several major wars and longtime tensions between India and Pakistan.
Islamabad previously opposed many Indian projects in the industrial system, while Delhi declared after the attack on the IIOJK that he had tried to renegotiate the treaty since 2023 to take into account population increases and its growing need for own hydroelectricity.
The Treaty restricts India largely to the implementation of low impact hydroelectric projects on the three rivers allocated to Pakistan. Delhi has the freedom to use the waters of three other rivers – the tributaries Sutlej, Beas and Ravi – as it judges him.
In addition to the plans to extend the Ranbir canal, India also envisages projects that would likely reduce water flow in Pakistan from the rivers allocated to this country, according to two government documents seen by Reuters and interviews with five familiar people with the issue.
A document, an undated note prepared by a government company for civil servants who envisage irrigation plans, suggests that the water from the Indus, Chenab and Jhelum “potentially be distributed in rivers” in three states of northern India.
One of the people said the document, the details of which have not been reported before, were created for discussions with officials from the Power Ministry after the April 22 attack.
Delhi has also created a list of hydroelectric projects in its Jammu-et-Cachemire territory which hopes to increase the capacity to 12,000 megawatts, against 3,360 MW current.
The list, created by the Ministry of Power and seen by Reuters, was not dated. A person familiar with the document said that he had been created before the cashmere incident, but that he is actively discussed by government officials.
Potential projects also include dams that can store large volumes of water, in what would be a first for India in the industrial river system, according to two people familiar with the issue.
India has identified at least five possible storage projects, including four on the tributaries of Chenab and Jhelum, according to the Document of the Ministry of Power.
Political disputes
International Relations Expert Happymon Jacob at the University of Jawaharlal in Delhi Nehru said that India’s new concentration on the Industry Water Treaty reflected an attempted pressure from Pakistan on cashmere.
“With the latest conflict, Delhi could refuse to discuss cashmere with Pakistan in any format,” he said. “Delhi has not only gradually reduced the scope of bilateral talks, but has also reduced the agenda, focusing solely on specific issues like IWT.”
Pakistan said it was preparing legal action in several international forums, including the World Bank, which facilitated the Treaty, as well as the Permanent Court of Arbitration or the International Court of Justice in Hague.
“Water should not be armed,” said Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said Reuters Monday. “We don’t even want to consider a scenario that … does not take into account the reinstatement of this treaty.”
Michel, the American expert, said that the concern about the suspension of the treaty was not limited to Islamabad.
“While geopolitical competition from the region deepens, more than a few Indian observers fear that the use of Delhi de l’Eau against Islamabad may authorize Beijing to adopt the same strategy against India,” he said.
