- Democrats accuse Trump of waging a “war of choice.”
- Three American soldiers killed, and more injured so far.
- Trump calls on Iranians to “take back” their country.
Trump administration officials acknowledged in closed-door briefings with congressional staff on Sunday that no intelligence suggested Iran planned to attack U.S. forces first, two people familiar with the matter said.
The United States and Israel launched their most ambitious attacks on Iran in decades on Saturday, martyring Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sinking Iranian warships and hitting more than 1,000 targets so far, officials said.
But Sunday’s remarks to Congress appeared to undermine one of the main arguments for war made by senior administration officials.
The day before, they told reporters that President Donald Trump decided to launch the attacks in part because of indicators that the Iranians might strike U.S. forces in the Middle East “perhaps preemptively.”
Trump, one of the officials said, was not going to “stand idly by and allow U.S. forces in the region to absorb attacks.”
Pentagon briefings lasted more than 90 minutes
Pentagon officials briefed Democratic and Republican staff on several Senate and House national security committees for more than 90 minutes about the ongoing U.S. attack in Iran, White House spokesman Dylan Johnson said earlier.
In the briefings, administration officials stressed that Iranian ballistic missiles and Iranian-mandated forces in the region posed an imminent threat to U.S. interests, but there was no information that Tehran attacked U.S. forces first, the two sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Reuters.
Trump said the attack, expected to last for weeks, was aimed at ensuring Iran cannot possess nuclear weapons, containing its missile program and eliminating threats to the United States and its allies.
He urged Iranians to rise up and overthrow the government.
Democrats criticize ‘war of choice’
Still, Democrats accused Trump of waging a war of choice and criticized his arguments for abandoning peace talks that mediator Oman said still held promise.
Trump argued, without presenting evidence, that Iran was poised to soon obtain the capability to strike the United States with a ballistic missile.
His claims about the missiles were not supported by U.S. intelligence reports and appeared to be exaggerated, sources familiar with the reports said. Reuters.
Questions about the justification for the war come as the U.S. military revealed the first American casualties from the conflict on Sunday.
Skepticism about regime change
Following the martyrdom of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei, many senior U.S. officials remain skeptical that the U.S. and Israeli military operation against the Islamic Republic will lead to regime change in the near term.
Before and after the attack began, U.S. officials, including U.S. President Trump, had suggested that overthrowing the country’s repressive system of government was one of many U.S. goals, in addition to crippling Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs.
“I call on all Iranian patriots who yearn for freedom to seize this moment…and take back their country,” Trump said Sunday in a video posted on Truth Social.
But three U.S. officials familiar with U.S. intelligence said there is serious skepticism that Iran’s battered opposition can overthrow the theocratic, authoritarian system of government in place since 1979.
No official consulted by Reuters completely ruled out the possibility of a fall of Iran’s government, which is currently reeling from losses of key personnel from ongoing U.S. and Israeli airstrikes and is deeply unpopular after an extraordinarily violent crackdown in January.
But that is far from likely, or even likely, in the near term, they said.
Reuters reported earlier that Central Intelligence Agency assessments presented to the White House in the weeks before the Iranian attack concluded that if Khamenei was killed, he could be replaced by hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or equally radical clerics, two sources said.
A U.S. official with knowledge of internal White House deliberations said it is unlikely that IRGC officials will capitulate voluntarily, in part because they have benefited from a vast patronage network designed to maintain their internal loyalty.
The CIA assessments followed at least one report from another U.S. intelligence agency that said there were no defections from the IRGC during a series of massive anti-government protests in January, which Iranian security forces met with brutal force.
Such defections would likely be a prerequisite for any successful revolution, according to three additional sources. These sources requested that the specific intelligence agency not be named.
All sources Reuters who I spoke with for this story requested anonymity to discuss intelligence assessments.
Trump himself said Sunday that he plans to reopen communications with Iran, suggesting that Washington doesn’t see the government going anywhere, at least immediately.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment, while the CIA declined to comment.
Lots of debate, less consensus
On Sunday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said a leadership council consisting of himself, the head of the judiciary and a member of the powerful Guardian Council had temporarily assumed the role of supreme leader.
Security chief Ali Larijani accused the United States and Israel of trying to plunder and disintegrate Iran and warned “secessionist groups” of a harsh response if they tried to act, state television said on Sunday, after the two countries launched a wave of air attacks on Iran, including the bombing of a girls’ primary school. Reuters could not independently confirm the state media reports.
U.S. intelligence discussions about the implications of a possible Khamenei assassination are not limited to whether it could lead to a change in government leadership.
Two of the U.S. officials said that since January, there had been significant debate — but no consensus — among officials at various agencies about the extent to which Khamenei’s assassination would lead to a significant change in how Iran approached negotiations with the United States over its nuclear program.
U.S. officials also debated the extent to which Khamenei’s death or ouster would deter the country from rebuilding its missile or nuclear facilities and capabilities, said these officials, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive internal conversations.
Following the January protests, Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy and key ally, spoke repeatedly with Iranian opponent Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah, raising questions about the extent to which the administration would support his installation if the Iranian government fell, two officials said.
But in recent weeks, senior U.S. officials have become increasingly pessimistic about the realistic ability of any Washington-backed opposition figure to control the country, these officials added.
“Ultimately, once the U.S. and Israeli strikes stop, if the Iranian people come forward, their success in promoting the end of the regime will depend on whether the base stands aside or aligns with them,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior U.S. intelligence official who now works at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington.
“Otherwise, the remnants of the regime, those who own the weapons, risk using them to maintain power.”
Three American soldiers killed
Three U.S. soldiers were killed and five seriously injured, U.S. Central Command said Sunday, adding that several other U.S. soldiers suffered minor shrapnel injuries and concussions.
U.S. aircraft and warships have struck more than 1,000 Iranian targets since Trump ordered the start of major combat operations, the military said.
The strikes include B-2 stealth bombers dropping 900 kg bombs on underground and hardened Iranian missile installations.
A Reuters/Ipsos A Sunday poll showed 27% of Americans approved of the strikes, while 43% disapproved and 29% were unsure.
