Norwegian authorities are investigating a potential leak after large bets were placed on the Nobel Peace Prize outcome on Polymarket just hours before it was made public.
Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who won the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for her role in the fight for democracy, saw an increase in betting on her victory in prediction markets hours before the official announcement, Bloomberg reported.
The increase was so notable that the official Polymarket account posted about it on social media.
A trader using the handle “dirtycup” placed a nearly $70,000 bet on Machado and walked away with about $30,000 in profit, without adding any other type of exposure. The account had been opened a few weeks earlier and had no prior betting history, according to Polymarket data.
Two other accounts also focused solely on Machado and netted a total of $90,000, local Norwegian newspaper Finansavisen reported.
“We take this very seriously,” said Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute. “It appears we are prey to a criminal actor who wants to make money from our information.”
Although the Nobel Peace Prize selection process is known for its secrecy, the committee reportedly made its decision a few days earlier. The committee is currently reviewing the situation.
Polymarket allows users to bet on real-world events, from elections to celebrity gossip. Its founder, Shayne Coplan, became the world’s youngest self-made billionaire after the company benefited from a $2 billion investment from the owner of the New York Stock Exchange.
